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ABSTRACT
Propaganda, more politely called ‘information operations’ these days, has been a prominent feature of the Russo-Ukrainian War. Both the Russians and Ukrainians have used propaganda to court global public opinion, shape military operations, and secure or destabilize alliances. However, although they have each tried to control the war’s narrative through propaganda, they cannot control social media – the enormous, entangled web of technology, actors, and interests that allows billions of users to interact, argue, and influence. This article will explain how the combination of propaganda and social media in the Russo-Ukrainian War has destabilized American civil-intelligence relations and raised political, social, and ethical questions concerning the role of citizens, both individually and collectively, in foreign wars.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Disclaimer
The views expressed in this article are the authors’ own and do not represent the views of any institutions with which they are affiliated, including the U.S. government, Department of Defense Special Operations Command, and Joint Special Operations University.
Notes
1. See, for example, Kyle Chaka, “Watching the World’s ‘First TikTok War’,”The New Yorker, March 2, 2022. https://www.newyorker.com/culture/infinite-scroll/watching-the-worlds-first-tiktok-war.
2. See, for example, Peter Aldhous and Christopher Miller, “How Open-Source Intelligence Is Helping Clear the Fog Of War In Ukraine,” BuzzFeedNews, March 2, 2022. https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/osint-ukraine-war-satellite-images-plane-tracking-social; “Open-source intelligence is piercing the fog of war in Ukraine,” The Economist, January 13, 2023. https://www.economist.com/interactive/international/2023/01/13/open-source-intelligence-is-piercing-the-fog-of-war-in-ukraine.
3. Wood, “Propaganda and Democracy,” 381–82.
4. Catlin, “The Role of Propaganda in a Democracy,” 221.
5. Veronica Ma, “Propaganda and Censorship,” 48.
6. Wharton, ed., 12.
7. Knott, Secret and Sanctioned, 145–48.
8. Mohamed Younis, “American Views on the Ukraine War in 6 Charts,” Gallup, November 2, 2023. https://news.gallup.com/poll/513680/american-views-ukraine-war-charts.aspx; Oren Liebermann and Donald Judd,”White House says money for Ukraine military aid is running out with Congress divided on whether to provide more,” CNN, November 3, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/03/politics/white-house-ukraine-aid-money/index.html; Andy Cera, ”About Half of Republicans now say the U.S. is providing too much aid to Ukraine,” Pew Research Center, December 8, 2023. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/12/08/about-half-of-republicans-now-say-the-us-is-providing-too-much-aid-to-ukraine/; As of February 16, 2024, the University of South Florida’s website displays results from an October 2023 National Security Survey. The results show that ‘a majority of eligible voters view Ukraine as an “ally” (48 per cent) or “partner” (23 per cent)’, but it also highlighted that ‘three quarters of Americans (75 per cent) say they are concerned about the possibility of begin drawn into a military conflict with Russia over our support of Ukraine’. These numbers highlight a level of uncertainty about the costs and risks of U.S. policy in Ukraine. https://www.usf.edu/arts-sciences/departments/public-affairs/documents/news-items/spa-national-security-survey-results-2023.pdf.
9. Polybius, Histories, 3.6–10.
10. Davey Alba, “Russia has been laying groundwork online for a ‘false flag’ operation, misinformation researchers say,” The New York Times, February 19, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/19/business/russia-has-been-laying-groundwork-online-for-a-false-flag-operation-misinformation-researchers-say.html.
11. Bertrand and Herb, “First on CNN: US intelligence indicates Russia preparing operation to justify invasion of Ukraine.”
12. Huminski, “Russia, Ukraine, and the Future Use of Strategic Intelligence,” 9–25.
13. Anton Troianovski, ”Putin announces a ‘military operation’ in Ukraine as the U.N. Security Council please with him to pull back,” The New York Times, February 23, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/world/europe/putin-announces-a-military-operation-in-ukraine-as-the-un-security-council-pleads-with-him-to-pull-back.html.
14. Charlie Smart, “How the Russian Media Spread False Claims About Ukrainian Nazis,” The New York Times, July 2, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/07/02/world/europe/ukraine-nazis-russia-media.html.
15. Ritz Katz, “Neo-Nazis are exploiting Russia’s war in Ukraine for their own purposes,” The Washington Post, March 14, 2022. https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/03/14/neo-nazi-ukraine-war/.
16. Thomas Gibbons-Neff, “Nazi Symbols on Ukraine’s Front Lines Highlight Thorny Issues of History,” The New York Times, June 5, 2023. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/05/world/europe/nazi-symbols-ukraine.html.
17. Betsy Woodruff Swan and Christopher Miller, ”Customs and Border Protection bulletin: American fighters headed to Ukraine questioned at U.S. airports,” Politico, May 24, 2022. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/24/american-fighters-ukraine-white-supremacists-00034860.
18. See, for example, “US seeking to develop bioagents targeting certain ethnic groups – defense ministry,” TASS, March 10, 2022. https://tass.com/world/1419965.
19. Tucker Carlson, “Tucker: The Pentagon is lying about bio labs in Ukraine,” Fox News, March 9, 2022.
20. Jessica Brandt, Valerie Wirtschafter, and Adya Danaditya, “Popular podcasters spread Russian disinformation about Ukraine biolabs,” Brookings, March 23, 2022. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/popular-podcasters-spread-russian-disinformation-about-ukraine-biolabs/; https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1620085243956068358.
21. Pamela Falk, “U.N. Security Council rejects Russia’s call to probe debunked U.S.-Ukraine biological weapons claim,” CBSNews, November 3, 2022. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-us-ukraine-biological-weapons-lab-claims-un-security-council-vote/.
22. Stuart A. Thompson and Davey Alba, “Fact and Mythmaking Blend in Ukraine’s Information War,” The New York Times, March 3, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/technology/ukraine-war-misinfo.html.
23. See, Amanda Seitz and Hannah Fingerhut, “Most in US fear Ukraine War misinformation: AP-NORC poll,” April 28, 2022. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-misinformation-only-on-ap-965fc3cddf07bad36f21e6330287e19f.
24. Morgan Meaker, ”How Ukraine Is Winning the Propaganda War,” Wired, June 13, 2022. https://www.wired.com/story/ukraine-propaganda-war/.
25. Rubio, Marco, “Twitter Post,” February 26, 2022, https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1497767438812917761?lang=en.
26. Oakley, “Intelligence in Ukraine,” pg. 234; Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. Report on the Human Rights Situation in Ukraine. New York, NY: UN Headquarters, 2017.
27. Block, “The long history of OSINT.”
28. ”Open-source intelligence is piercing the fog of war in Ukraine,” The Economist.
29. Miron Lakomy, “Amid War in Ukraine, Open-Source Intelligence Investigators Need Better Ethics,” Scientific American, May 8, 2023, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/amid-war-in-ukraine-open-source-intelligence-investigators-need-better-ethics/#:~:text=The%20same%20lighthearted%20attitude%20to,harm%20people%20in%20many%20ways.
30. Steven Lee Myers, “How Social Media Amplifies Misinformation More Than Information,” The New York Times, October 13, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/13/technology/misinformation-integrity-institute-report.html.
31. ICD 203 establishes the Intelligence Community (IC) Analytic Standards that govern the production and evaluation of analytic products; articulates the responsibility of intelligence analysts to strive for excellence, integrity, and rigor in their analytic thinking and work practices”.
32. Brantly, “Narrative Battles.”
33. Harry G. Frankfurt, On Bullshit.
34. Roman Horbyk, “’The war phone’: mobile communication on the frontline in Eastern Ukraine,” Digital War Vol. 3 (2022): 9–24, 9.
35. See, for example, https://twitter.com/lindyli/status/1498502526123057154.
36. Jack Detsch. “’Street Fight’: Russia’s Block-by-Block Warfare in Ukraine,” Foreign Policy, February 28, 2022. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/28/russia-urban-warfare-ukraine-insurgency-kyiv-kharkiv/.
37. See, for example, https://twitter.com/SpencerGuard/status/1497583307504046087; For more on direct participation in hostilities, see, https://casebook.icrc.org/a_to_z/glossary/direct-participation-hostilities.
38. Luisa von Richthofen, “In Ukraine War, Twitter Sherlocks come of age,” DW, May 1, 2022. https://www.dw.com/en/in-ukraine-war-twitter-sherlocks-are-coming-of-age/a-61647943.
39. Liza Rozovsky, “Russian Mothers Say Soldiers Tricked Into Going to Ukraine,” Haaretz, February 24, 2022. https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/2022-02-24/ty-article/.highlight/why-is-he-there-russian-mothers-say-soldiers-tricked-into-going-to-ukraine/0000017f-f95a-d7c0-afff-fd5a97cc0000.
40. See https://twitter.com/ICRC/status/1499765232704663552; for Article 13 of the Geneva Convention, see https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/gciii-1949/article-13/commentary/2020.
41. See, for example, https://twitter.com/WylieNewmark/status/1499127524995092490.
42. Grayson Quay, “GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger calls for U.S.-enforced no-fly zone over Ukraine,” The Week, February 26, 2022. https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war/1010657/gop-rep-adam-kinzinger-calls-for-us-enforced-no-fly-zone-over-ukraine.
43. See https://twitter.com/AdamKinzinger/status/1497373618531143680; Maura Reynolds, “’Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes,” Politico, February 28, 2022. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340
45. Adam Taylor, “With NAFO, Ukraine turns the trolls on Russia,” The Washington Post, September 1, 2022. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/01/nafo-ukraine-russia/.
46. ”Transcript: NAFO and Winning the Information War: Lessons Learned from Ukraine,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, October 5, 2022. https://www.csis.org/analysis/nafo-and-winning-information-war-lessons-learned-ukraine
47. Ibid.
48. Peter Beaumont, “Clear picture of war in Ukraine clouded by large areas of unknowns,” The Guardian, March 6, 2022. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/06/clear-picture-russian-war-ukraine-clouded-unknowns-lack-reliable-information.
49. See, for example, https://twitter.com/Sandbagger_01/status/1500245898768572419.
50. See, for example, https://twitter.com/thomasjuneau/status/1500273073043513345.
51. Volodymyr Havrylov, “How Putin’s Attempts at Deception Failed in Ukraine,” The Cipher Brief, November 15, 2017. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/putins-attempts-deception-failed-ukraine.
52. ”Ukraine’s commander-in-chief on the breakthrough he needs to beat Russia,” The Economist, November 1, 2023. https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/01/ukraines-commander-in-chief-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia.
53. See, for example, Hewson, “Ukrainian company uses social media, open source technology to counter Russian invasion.”
54. Craig Timberg and Drew Harwell, “Social media fuels new type of ‘fog of war’ in Ukraine conflict,” The Washington Post, February 24, 2022. https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/02/24/ukraine-russia-war-twitter-social-media/
55. Benjamin J. Radford, Yaoyao Dai, Niklas Stoehr et al., “Estimating conflict losses and reporting biases,” PNAS 120:34. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2307372120; Gary Dagorn. ‘War in Ukraine: Why it is so hard to estimate the number of dead?’ Le Monde, September 26, 2022. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2022/09/26/war-in-ukraine-why-it-is-so-hard-to-estimate-the-number-of-dead_5998268_8.html.
56. Helene Cooper, Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Eric Schmitt et al., “Troop Deaths and Injuries in Ukraine War Near 500,000, U.S. Officials Say,” The New York Times, August 18, 2023. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html; Isobel Koshiw, “Ukraine’s reports adapt amid media restrictions and pressure of war,” The Guardian, March 5, 2023. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/05/ukraines-reporters-adapt-amid-media-restrictions-and-pressure-of-war.
57. Constant Méheut and Daria Mitiuk, “’It’s State Propaganda’: Ukrainians Shun TV News as War Drags on,” The New York Times, January 3, 2024. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/03/world/europe/ukraine-war-tv-news-telemarathon.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare.
58. See, for example, https://twitter.com/RepJasonCrow/status/1497315776541298688.
59. ”Full Transcript of Zelensky’s Speech Before Congress,” The New York Times, December 21, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/21/us/politics/zelensky-speech-transcript.html.
60. Laura Kelly, “Schumer: Zelensky says Ukraine will lose war without aid,” The Hill, September 21, 2023. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4216620-schumer-zelensky-says-ukraine-will-lose-war-without-aid/.
61. Robert Wright, “A case study in American propaganda,” Responsible Statecraft, June 12, 2022. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/06/12/a-case-study-in-american-propaganda/.
62. Missy Ryan, “U.S. races to track American arms in heat of Ukraine war,” The Washington Post, November 1, 2022. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/11/01/us-weapons-ukraine-oversight/; Natasha Bertrand and Haley Britzky, “Pentagon watchdog finds some Western weaponry sent to Ukraine was stolen before being recovered last year,” July 21, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/20/politics/pentagon-watchdog-report-ukraine-weaponry/index.html.
63. Alex Horton, John Hudson, Isabelle Khurshudyan et al., “U.S. doubts Ukraine counteroffensive will yield big gains, leaked document says,” The Washington Post, April 10, 2023. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/10/leaked-documents-ukraine-counteroffensive/.
64. A. Craig Copetas, “Ukraine Is on the Cusp of Losing This War: ‘We’re Screwed’,” Daily Beast, December 12, 2023. https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraine-is-on-the-cusp-of-losing-this-war-were-screwed.
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67. Jim Sciutto, “Western officials warn Ukraine is ‘certain to fail’ against Russia if US doesn’t provide more aid,” CNN, December 15, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/15/politics/ukraine-us-aid-western-officials-warning/index.html.
68. Copetas, “Ukraine Is on the Cusp of Losing This War: ‘We’re Screwed’.”
69. Steven Erlanger, Jim Tankersley, Michael D. Shear et al., “Biden Vows to Back Ukraine ‘as Long as It Takes”, despite Economic Toll,” The New York Times, June 30, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/30/world/europe/biden-nato-ukraine-russia.html; Alexander Ward and Adam Cancryn, “Biden ‘not making promises’ US will further assist Ukraine,”Politico, December 12, 2023. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/12/biden-not-making-promises-us-will-further-assist-ukraine-00131433.
70. See, for example, https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1498623804200865792.
73. Ken Dilanian, “Under Trump, more leaks – and more leak investigations,” NBC News, April 8, 2019. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/under-trump-more-leaks-more-leak-investigations-n992121.
74. Aric Toler, Malachy Browne and Julian E. Barnes, “Airman Shared Sensitive Intelligence More Widely and for Longer than Previously Known,” The New York Times, April 21, 2023. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/us/politics/jack-teixeira-leaks-russia-ukraine.html.
75. Yaroslav Trofimov and Nancy A. Youssef, “Pentagon Investigates More Social-Media Posts Purporting to Include U.S. Documents,” The Wall Street Journal, April 7, 2023. https://www.wsj.com/articles/pentagon-says-it-is-reviewing-social-media-posts-that-purport-to-reveal-classified-documents-on-ukraine-4d7524f; Yaroslav Trofimov and Bob Mackin, “Social-Media Account Overseen by Former Navy Noncommissioned Officer Helped Spread Secrets,” The Wall Street Journal, April 16, 2023. https://www.wsj.com/articles/social-media-account-overseen-by-former-navy-noncommissioned-officer-helped-spread-secrets-a4b5643b; Steve Herman, ”Russians Accused of Doctoring Leaked Western Documents on Ukraine War,” VOA News, April 7, 2023. https://www.voanews.com/a/russians-accused-of-doctoring-leaked-western-documents-on-ukraine-war-/7041447.html.
76. Eric Uebelacker, “Tucker Carlson Duped By Fake Russian Propaganda Docs on Ukraine War,” The Daily Beast, April 17, 2023. https://www.thedailybeast.com/tucker-carlson-gets-fooled-by-russian-propaganda-docs-from-sarah-bils.
77. David Brennan, “How to Solve Ukraine’s GOP Problem,” Newsweek, November 12, 2023. https://www.newsweek.com/how-solve-ukraine-gop-problem-republicans-2024-election-zelensky-trump-1842605.
78. Taylor Lorenz, “The White House is briefing TikTok stars about the war in Ukraine,” The Washington Post, March 11, 2022. https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/11/tik-tok-ukraine-white-house/.
79. Klein and Janfaza, “White House is briefing social media creators on Russia and Ukraine.”
80. Roger Cohen, “A Surge of Unifying Moral Outrage Over Russia’s War,” The New York Times, March 1, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/world/europe/zelensky-ukraine-war-outrage.html?referringSource=articleShare.
81. Steven Erlanger, “After a Fumbled Start, Russian Forces Hit Harder in Ukraine,” The New York Times, February 28, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/world/europe/russia-ukraine-military.html.
82. Missy Ryan, Alex Horton and Karen DeYoung, “As Ukraine flies through artillery rounds, U.S. races to keep up,” The Washington Post, August 21, 2023. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/19/artillery-ammunition-ukraine-pentagon/.
83. Marcellino, Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Kerrigan, Chao, Smith, The Rise of Generative AI and the Coming Era of Social Media Manipulation 3.0.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
David P. Oakley
David P. Oakley is the Academic Director at the University of South Florida’s Global and National Security Institute (GNSI). He served in the U.S. Army and the CIA during a twenty-three-year national security career. Dave is a Visiting Research Fellow at the King’s Centre for the Study of Intelligence at King’s College London. His book, Subordinating Intelligence: The DoD/CIA Post-Cold War Relationship, was published by the University Press of Kentucky in 2019/2022.
Jeff Rogg
Jeff Rogg is an assistant professor at the Joint Special Operations University and a senior non-resident fellow at the University of South Florida’s Global and National Security Institute. His work has appeared in Intelligence and National Security, International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, Just Security, The Washington Post, The National Interest, Los Angeles Times, and The Hill. Jeff’s book, The Spy and the State: The Story of American Intelligence, is under contract with Oxford University Press.