The Ukraine war and the shift in Russian intelligence priorities

ABSTRACT

The war in Ukraine has transformed Russian intelligence activities. It has drawn the bulk of Russian intelligence collection resources, both inside Ukraine and further afield, to focus on war-related, often low-level operational/tactical targets. Even strategic collection is related to the war, especially directed toward bolstering Russia’s global reputation. However, the war has also led to the dismantling of a large portion of Russia’s intelligence apparatus, including both human and signals intelligence, especially in Europe, just when it is needed the most. It has prompted greater scrutiny and international counterintelligence cooperation against Russian intelligence activities than has been seen since the 1980s. Russia’s own actions have drawn those reactions. Nevertheless, Russian intelligence services are resilient and persistent. They learn from mistakes and adapt to changing circumstances.

KEYWORDS:

• Russia
• Ukraine
• Russian invasion
• intelligence
• FSB
• GRU
• SVR

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

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2. Soldatov and Borogan, ”Putin Began Purges.”

3. Porter, ”A senior Russian official.”

4. Miller, ”Russian Spies Misread.”

5. Reynolds and Watling, ”Ukraine Through Russia’s Eyes.”

6. Security Service of Ukraine, ”SSU Exposes over 600 Russian Agents.”

7. Crowdstrike Global Intelligence Team, ”Use of Fancy Bear Android Malware.”

8. ”Ukraine defence ministry website”; Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and National Cyber Security Centre, ”UK assesses Russian involvement.”

9. Karlovskiy, ”The SBU Detained a Traitor.”

10. Romanenko, ”BBR Discovered a Russian Airman.”

11. Kizilov, ”Russian Agent Caught.”

12. Arunyan, ”Agents ‘Gavrilov’ and ‘Kanatoxodets’”

13. Romanenko, ”The SBU Uncovered Spies”; Kizilov, ”Court Gave a Spy from the Cabinet of Ministers”; Romanenko, ”Shmigal Provided Details”; and Volykovska, ”Ex-clerk of the Cabinet of Ministers.”

14. Rofé, ”Former SBU General”; Titoff, ”SBU General Shaytanov.”

15. Lozovenko, ”She Wanted to Become a ‘Mole’”

16. Prosecutor General’s Office, ”Crimes Committed.”

17. Butsko, ”Revealed Traitors.”

18. Karlovksiy, ”Russians Hit Ukrainian Forces.”

19. Dobrokhotov, Weiss, and Grozev, ”The far-right Bundestag aide.”

20. Chiappa, ”Former German intelligence officer”; ”Russia “Breaks Into” German Intelligence Agency”; Callery, ”Youth football coach.”

21. ”Espionage in Vienna”; ”Austria detains diplomat’s son.”

22. ”’They bought it’”

23. Stephens, ”Ex-Wirecard boss”.

24. ”Nearly 4 M Russians Left Russia.”

25. Grozev, ”Socialite, Widow, Jeweller, Spy.”

26. Corera, ”Russian GRU spy.”

27. ”Russia withdraws from International Criminal Court treaty.”

28. Henley and Sauer, ”Norway arrests ‘Brazilian researcher’”

29. Sheftalovich and Cerulus, ”The chips are down.”

30. ”The Russians Expelled from the Netherlands.”

31. U.S. Department of Justice, ”Five Russian Nationals”; U.S. Department of Justice, ”Justice Department Announces Charges.”

32. ”Russian-Swede Accused”; Hivert, ”The Russian spy couple.”

33. ”A Russian-born Swede accused.”

34. ”In Ukraine the Most Dangerous General.”

35. Butsko, ”Revealed Traitors.”

36. Security Service of Ukraine, ”The SBU exposed a traitor.”

37. Karlovksiy, ”Russians Hit Ukrainian Forces.”

38. Security Service of Ukraine, ”The SBU neutralized.”

39. ”’How Much Do You Want.”

40. ”Poland expels 45 Russian diplomats.”

41. Wight”,Warsaw’s secret war.”

42. ”Entire Russian spy network dismantled in Poland,” March 16, 2023. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64975200.

43. Zasada, ”Spy network in Poland.”

44. ”The military services detained the spy.”

45. ”Poland sets exclusion zone.”

46. ”Russian Special Services Recruited.”

47. ”Poland detains two Russians.”

48. ”Poland detains Russian spy.”

49. ”Poland arrests Russian ice-hockey player.”

50. Eckel, Bedrov, and Komarova, ”A Czech Explosion.”

51. ”Russia is Using the Intelligence TU-214 R.”

52. Martin, ”Russia’s air campaign.”

53. Bronk, Reynolds, and Watling, ”The Russian Air War”, 27–28.

54. Zabrodskyi, et al, ”Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting,” 25.

55. Dangwal, ”A-50 AWACS Attack.”

56. ”The Shadow War”; Bueger, ”Russian ‘spy ship’ raises concerns.”

57. Rai, ”Putin could face new war crime case.”

58. Cocks, ”More than 40 nations interested.”

59. U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, ”United States of America v. Sergey Vladimirovich Cherkasov.”

Additional information

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Kevin Riehle

Kevin Riehle is a lecturer in intelligence and international security at Brunel University London. He spent over 30 years in the U.S. government as a counterintelligence analyst studying foreign intelligence services, retiring as an associate professor of strategic intelligence at the National Intelligence University in 2021. He subsequently spent two years as an associate professor at the University of Mississippi, Center for Intelligence and Security Studies before moving to Brunel. He received a PhD in War Studies from King’s College London, an MS of Strategic Intelligence from the Joint Military Intelligence College, and a BA in Russian and Political Science from Brigham Young University. He has written on a variety of intelligence and counterintelligence topics, focusing on the history of Soviet and Eastern Bloc intelligence services. His next book, The Russian FSB: A Concise History of the Federal Security Service, will be published in early 2024.