The Losing Battle of Goliath: the Failed Management of an American Alliance and the Asymmetric Intra-Alliance Negotiation under the ANZUS Dispute (1984-1986)

ABSTRACT

Why do superpowers at times fail to manage intra-alliance disputes? Existing studies have argued that superpowers enjoy advantageous positions and easily manipulate opposition from their lesser allies. Yet, the ANZUS crisis, in which the United States could not modify New Zealand’s Nuclear Free Policy (NFP) incompatible with the ANZUS treaty, poses a puzzle. Using historical documents in New Zealand, Australia, and the United States, the article claims the United States’ strategic restraint failed in intra-alliance negotiation between the United States and New Zealand. Because the United States anticipated that its punitive reactions would harden New Zealand’s position and hurt the United States’ reputation as the leader of the Western alliances, it had avoided extremely harsh measures against New Zealand. Ironically, this restrained behaviour of the United States reassured the policymakers in New Zealand that the costs and risks caused by the NFP would be acceptable and consequently pushed them to escalate New Zealand’s position to the point that the United States had no choice but to expel New Zealand from the ANZUS membership. This case study implies that restrained reactions by stronger allies within an intra-alliance negotiation can provoke the unexpected backlash of dissenting allies.

KEYWORDS:

• the United States
• New Zealand
• Strategic Restraint
• Nuclear-Free Policy
• intra-alliance bargaining
• ANZUS

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/00323187.2023.2290524

Notes

1. ‘United States Views on ANZUS and Port Access’, 31 August 1984, 111/3/3/1 Part 22, Archives New Zealand, Wellington [hereafter: ANZ].

2. Ibid.

3. The results of public polls were extracted from the United States Information Agency (USIA) Research Report, September 1984, RG 306 R-24-84, the National Archives of Record Administration [hereafter: NA]; USIA Research Memorandum, 22 February 1985, RG 306 M-2-22-1985, NA; USIA Research Memorandum, 31 December 1985, RG 306 M-12-31-1985, NA.

4. ‘1984 Policy Document’, undated 1984, AAWW W4640 7112, Box 45, ANZ; Memorandum for Cabinet, 14 March 1985, AAWW W4640 7104, Box 4, ANZ.

5. Although the Labour party had already set up the Nuclear-Free principles in 1981, then the principles stated establish of the Nuclear-Free zone, not ban of nuclear ships.

6. ‘Memo to Members of the Policy Council’, 13 May 1983, AAWW, W4640, 7112, Box 44, ANZ.

7. Ibid.

8. Ibid.

9. ‘Background Paper and Options’, 25 March 1983, AAWW, W4640, 7112, Box 31, Part 2, ANZ.

10. Minute of the Foreign Affairs, Justice and Media Committee, 8 July 1983, AAWW, W4640, 7112, Box 44 in ANZ.

11. New Zealand. Hansard Parliamentary Debates, Vol. 451 (1983), 1000.

12. ‘Background Paper and Options’, 25 March 1983, AAWW, W4640, 7112, Box 31, Part 1, ANZ.

13. Washington to Canberra, 3 July 1984, A1838, 250/11/18, Part 12, National Archives of Australia [hereafter: NAA].

14. ‘US Views on ANZUS and Port Access’, 31 August 1984, 111/3/3/1, Part 24, ANZ.

15. Memo of Discussion, 24 July 1984, 111/3/3/1 Part 22, ANZ.

16. Honolulu to Canberra, 11 July 1984, A1838, 250/11/18, Part 13, NAA.

17. From Honolulu to Canberra, 14 November 1984, A1838, 370/1/20, Part 24, NAA.

18. Ibid.

19. Inward Cablegram from Wellington to Canberra, 2 July 1984, A1838, 919/18/1 Part 3, NAA.

20. The South Pacific: New Problems for the United States, 28 April 1983, General CIA Records.

21. Washington to Canberra, 7 November 1984, A1838, 370/1/20, Part 24, NAA. This comprehension was also demonstrated by John Helble in an interview held in 1984. An interview with John J. Helble, 5 April 1996, Foreign Affairs Oral History Project, 224.

22. Record of Conversation between Laux and First Secretary, US Embassy, 13 July 1984, A1838, 250/11/18, Part 13, NAA.

23. Canberra to Jakarta, 13 July 1984, A1838, 250/11/18, Part 13, NAA.Tamamizu (2020) detailed Australia’s approach to the United States during the ANZUS dispute.

24. Telegram to Hayden, 11 September 1984, A1838, 250/11/18, Part 15, NAA.

25. Honolulu to Canberra, 11 July 1984, A1838, 250/11/18, Part 13, NAA.

26. Wellington to Canberra, 18 December 1984, A1838, 250/11/18 Part 17, NAA.

27. Washington to Canberra, 25 October 1984, A1838 250/11/18, Part 16, NAA.

28. Memo of Discussion, 24 July 1984, 111/3/3/1, Part 22, ANZ.

29. Washington to All East Asian and Pacific Diplomatic Posts, 25 July 1984 i, David Laux Files, Box 27, Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, Simi Valley, LA, the United States [hereafter: RRPL].

30. ‘Regan is Optimistic about NZ Ship Ban’, 26 July 1984, Sydney Morning Herald, 5.

31. Canberra to Washington, Wellington and Honolulu, 17 December 1984, A1838, 370/1/20, Part 25, NAA.

32. Ean Higgins, ‘NZ Finds Way to End Nuclear Ships Stand-Off with U.S’. 4 December 1984, Australian Financial Review, 5.

33. Wellington to Canberra, 21 December 1984, A1838, 370/1/20, Part 25, NAA.

34. Wellington to Canberra, 12 September 1984, A 1838, 250/11//18, Part 15, NAA.

35. Transcript of Interview with NZ Prime Minister on TV Program, 1 January 1985, 111/3/3/1, Part 25, ANZ.

36. Wellington to Canberra, 2 November 1984, A 1838, 250/11/18, Part 16, NAA.

37. Washington to Canberra, 14 December 1984, A1838, 370/1/20 Part 25, NAA.

38. Washington to Wellington, 1 February 1985, 111/3/3/1 Part 26, ANZ.

39. 131 Cong. Rec. G Molinari, 1620. (daily ed. 26 February 1985) (statement of Rep. Molinari).

40. London to Canberra, 17 October 1984, A1838, 250/11/18, Part 16, NAA.

41. Memorandum for the Vice President”,United States Policy towards the New Zealand Government with respect to the Port Access Issue”, 25 February 1985. General CIA Records.

42. Bernard Gwertzman, ‘U.S. in Warning To New Zealand On Ship Visits’, A1, New York Times, July 29, 1985.

43. The Record of Secretary’s Discussion with State Department Officials on the Subject of ANZUS, 24 February 1985, 250/11/18, NAA.

44. Ibid.

45. Ibid.

46. Ibid.

47. Ibid.

48. Ibid.

49. Memorandum for the President from George Shultz, 21 February 1985, David Laux File, Box 6, RRPL.

50. Ibid.

51. Ibid.

52. Ibid.

53. Barton Gellman, ‘Sparring Over the Nuclear Issue’, The Washington Post, 2 March 1985, A10.

54. Ibid.

55. Ibid.

56. Memorandum for Cabinet, 14 March 1985, AAWW W4640 7104, Box 4, ANZ.

57. Concurrent Resolution, 18 March 1985, David Laux Files, Box 27, RRPL.

58. Concurrent Resolution, 19 March 1985, David Laux Files, Box 27, RRPL.

59. Washington to Canberra, 23 March 1985, 250/11/18, Part 20, NAA.

60. Statement by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Paul Wolfowitz, 19 March 1985, 250/11/18 Part 20, NAA.

61. Washington to Canberra, 20 March 1985, 250/11/18, Part 20, NAA.

62. Statement by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Paul Wolfowitz in the Subcommittee on Asian and Pacific Affairs of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, 19 March 1985, 250/11/18 Part 20, NAA.

63. Hunter to Laux, 12 April 1985, David Laux Files Box 27, RRPL.

64. Congress to Reagan, 29 April 1985, David Laux Files Box 27, RRPL.

65. Hayden to Solarz, congressman Solarz on ANZUS and New Zealand Port Access, 26 July 1985, A1838, 370/1/120, Part 39, NAA.

66. Washington to Canberra, 16 December 1985, A1838, 370/1/20, Part 49, NAA.

67. Wellington to Canberra, 7 June 1985, 111/12/36/1/1, Part 1, ANZ.

68. Washington to Wellington, 19 July 1985, 111/3/3/1, Part 37, ANZ.

69. National Security Decision Directive, No. 193. U.S. Policy on the New Zealand Port Access Issue, 21 October 1985, General CIA Records.

70. Ibid.

71. Washington to Canberra, 6 December 1985, A1838, 370/1/20, Part 48, NAA.

72. Record of Conversation with Mr. D. F. Lambertson and Mr. R.W. Baker, 24 September 1985, A1838, 370/1/20, Part 43, NAA.

73. The Record of the Interview with Lange, 17 February 1986, David Laux Files, Box 28, RRPL.

74. Washington to Canberra, 23 July 1985, A1838, 370/1/20, Part 39, NAA.

75. Ibid.

76. Washington to Canberra, 22 October 1985, A1838, 370/1/20. Part 46, NAA.

77. The Record of the Interview with Lange, 18 July 1985, David Laux File, Box 27, RRPL.

78. Wellington to Washington, 31 October 1985, A1838 370/1/20 Part 46, NAA.

79. Canberra to Wellington and Washington, 22 October 1985, A1838, 370/1/20, Part 46, NAA.

80. Foreign Canberra to F. A. Sydney, 5 December 1985, A1838 686/1, Part 60, NAA.

81. Honolulu to Canberra, 6 January 1986, A1838, 250/11/18, Part 29, NAA.

82. Ibid.

83. Transcript: Wolfowitz WorldNet Interview, ‘U.S. Pacific Nations Work to Solve Problems’, 10 February 1986, 111/3/3/1, Box 25, ANZ.

84. Canberra to London, Washington and Wellington, 14 April 1986, A1838, 1628/25/7, part 6, NAA.

85. Honolulu to Canberra, 7 January 1986, A1838, 250/11/18, Part 29, NAA.

86. Canberra to Washington, Wellington, London and Honolulu, 11 March 1986, A1838, 1628/25/7, Part 6, NAA.

87. Canberra to Washington, Wellington, London and Honolulu, 27 February, A1838, 1628/25/7, Part 6, NAA.

88. Conversation between Ansell and Harris, 17 December 1985, A1838, 250/11/18, Part 29, NAA.

89. Prime Minister’s meeting with U.S. Ambassador, 29 July 1986, 111/3/3/1, Part 51, ANZ.

90. Call on the Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Mr M Norrish, by the Japanese Ambassador, Mr S Omori, 4 July 1986, 111/3/3/1, Part 51, ANZ.

91. Ibid.

92. Notes of Meeting between the Ambassador and Representative Stephen Solarz, 13 July 1986, 111/3/3/1, ABHS W5422 950 Box 26, Part 51, ANZ.

93. Call on the Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Mr M Norrish, by the Japanese Ambassador, Mr S Omori, 4 July 1986, 111/3/3/1, Part 51, ANZ.

94. Ibid.

95. Washington to Canberra, 4 December 1985, A1838, 1628/25/7, Part 6, NAA.

96. Washington to Canberra, 28 February 1986, A1838, 1628/25/7, Part 6, NAA.

97. Washington to Canberra, 26 March 1986, A1838, 1628/25/7, Part 6, NAA.

98. Washington Declaration on Defense Cooperation between the Department of Defense of the United States of America and the Ministry of Defence of New Zealand and the New Zealand Defence Force, 20 June 2012, the Government of New Zealand, https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/us-nz-defence-arrangement-signed.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Japan Science Society [28#104].

Notes on contributors

Leo Tamamizu

Leo Tamamizu is PhD candidate at the Political Science programme, the Graduate Center, City University of New York and a researcher at the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA). His research interests focus on armed conflicts, military alliances and social science methods including mixed-methods approach.