![Sample our Politics & International Relations journals, sign in here to start your FREE access for 14 days]({"type":"image" , "src" : "/sda/5947/TOC-Subject-Sample-2021-Politics-International-Relations.jpg"})
ABSTRACT
Denationalisation and the rise of independent lists are strong trends in the local politics of many European countries, but little is known about their implications. Using the example of Czechia, we examine several effects of this trend, focussing on two questions: 1) What impact does the growing number of independents have on voter turnout? 2) How does this trend affect competitiveness and the party system? Using data on electoral results in Czech municipalities over two consecutive elections, we document mobilisation effects based on the presence of independents. The strongest mobilisation occurred in municipalities in which both types of lists – party-related and independent – were well represented. The study revealed a self-reinforcing mechanism related to the success of independents. In municipalities with many independent councillors, the percentage of party-affiliated candidates decreased in subsequent elections, opening up further opportunities for independents. A side effect of this mechanism is a reduction in electoral competitiveness.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1. Unlike Copus et al. (Citation2008), we do not classify lists of candidates organised by local branches of small national parties as local independents. In fact, the distinction between large and small national parties lacks any significant meaning in Czechia with its proportional electoral system and large number of national, but relatively small parties.
2. We focus on the share of candidates (and councillors) instead of the share of candidate lists to account for the existence of incomplete lists, single-member lists and mixed lists submitted by coalitions (see above). We consider the proportion of independent candidates and councillors to represent more accurately the importance of independents in the electoral process than the proportion of fully independent lists.
3. As a robustness check we also conducted analyses with categorisation of independent variables into three groups (less than 40%, 40–60%, more than 60%). The results were virtually the same (see section Analysis).
4. The operationalisation of competitiveness corresponds to the approach in the paper Ryšavý, Bernard (Citation2013).
5. The ageing index refers to the number of seniors (aged 65 years and over) per 100 youths (younger than 14 years old). Thus, the higher the index is, the older the population.
6. Since we are working with the full sample of local elections, we do not present p-values in the tables, but standard errors.
7. Robustness check analysis with categorisation of independent variables into three groups yielded very similar results – highest turnout in municipalities with balanced share (40–60%) of party- and independent candidates, diminishing competitiveness and diminishing share of party candidates in municipalities with council dominated by independents.
8. A specific reaction to the significant success of independents in local elections in Czechia was also the formation of the political party Starostové a nezávislí (Mayors and Independents) in 2009, which subsequently established itself also in Czech national politics.