https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8455-3742
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ABSTRACT
This article discusses the Israel-Hamas conflict, focusing on the ‘survive-win’ cycle and the concept of attrition in armed conflict. It highlights how power differentials between combatants – like Hamas and the Israeli Defense Force – lead to strategies like positional warfare and Fabian tactics, ultimately resulting in wars of attrition. Further, research illustrates that attrition is a fundamental aspect of conflict, challenging the idea that Western militaries should avoid the approach. Moreover, precision munitions in urban areas, such as Gaza City, still lead to significant casualties and collateral damage, urging a realistic acknowledgment of attrition in warfare.
Disclosure statement
The views and opinions expressed in this article do not reflect the U.S. Government, or the Department of Defense, or the Department of the Army.
Supplemental data
Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/09592318.2024.2346128.
Notes
1. Shear, “Biden Warns Israel It Is “Losing Support” Over War.”
2. “Reported Impact Since 7 October 2023,” United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
3. “Secretary Blinken’s Call with Israeli Minister Gantz.”
4. Gupta et al., ‘’”We Are All Sick”: Infectious Diseases Spread Across Gaza.”
5. Clausewitz, On War, 77–81.
6. Fox, “Myths and Principles in the Challenges of Future War.”
7. “Israel’s Responsibility is to “Keep Civilian Deaths at a Minimum”, Says Senior Adviser to Netanyahu.”
8. Tugultschinow and Dezso, “Three Realistic Endgame Options for Israel in Its War Against Hamas.”
9. “Statement by the Chief of the General Staff, “LTG Herzi Halevi.“”
10. Dupuy et al., Handbook on Ground Forces Attrition in Modern Warfare, 7–9.
11. “Israel’s Responsible is to “Keep Civilian Deaths at a Minimum.””
12. “Israel’s Responsible is to “Keep Civilian Deaths at a Minimum.””
13. Luckenbaugh, “AUSA News: Army Transforming – Not Just Modernizing – for Future Battlefield.”
14. Meadows, Thinking in Systems: A Primer, 16.
15. Boot, “Israel’s Ground War Against Hamas: What to Know,”; and “How Do the Israeli Military and Hamas Compare in Size and Strength?”
16. Seurat, “Hamas’s Goal in Gaza.”
17. Ravid and Gottbrath, “Israel’s Goal in Gaza – and What It Means for Palestinians.”
18. King, “Urban Insurgency in the Twenty-First Century: Smaller Militaries and Increased Conflict in Cities,” 627.
19. Carr and Walsh, “The Fabian Strategy: How to Trade Space for Time”, 84; and Andrew Carr, “Time is Fundamentally an Ordering Process.”
20. Brennan, “How Does Israel’s Military Compare to Hamas Forces?”; Nakhoul et al., “How Hamas Aims to Trap Israel in Gaza Quagmire,”; and Michael Leiter, Daniel Byman, and Emily Harding, ‘Hamas’ October 7 Attack: The Tactics, Targets, and Strategy of Terrorists.”
21. “Hamas Propaganda Video Shows Guerilla Warfare Tactics.”
22. Dostri, “Hamas’s October 2023 Attack on Israel: The End of the Deterrence Strategy in Gaza.”
23. Leonhard, The Principles of War for the Information Age, 61–65.
24. Leonhard, The Principles of War for the Information Age, 62–62.
25. Leonhard, The Art of Maneuver: Maneuver-Warfare Theory and AirLand Battle, 67.
26. Leonhard, The Art of Maneuver, 68–69.
27. Leonhard, Fighting by Minutes: Time and the Art of War, 155.
28. “Why Urban Warfare in Gaza Will Be Bloodier Than in Iraq”; Marco Hernandez and Josh Holder, “The Tunnels of Gaza: How the Subterranean Maze Below the Gaza Strip Works,”; and Natalie Ecanow, “Hamas Officials Admit Its Strategy is to Use Civilians as Human Shields.”
29. “Hamas Tunnel Network – Israeli Military is Reportedly Flooding Hamas Tunnels in Gaza.”
30. Kofman, “A Bad Romance: US Operational Concepts Need to Ditch Their Love Affair with Cognitive Paralysis and Make Peace with Attrition.”
31. Cathal Nolan, The Allure of Battle: A History of How Wars Have Been Won and Lost, 577.
32. Tuck, Understand Land Warfare, 99–100.
33. Gady and Kofman, “Ukraine’s Strategy of Attrition,” 14–15.
34. King, “Will Inter-State War Take Place in Cities?” 72–73.
35. Weissman, “Urban Warfare: Challenges of Military Operations on Tomorrow’s Battlefield,” 148–151.
36. Dupuy et al., Handbook of Ground Forces Attrition in Modern Warfare, 6.
37. Ibid.
38. Ibid., 10–11.
39. Ibid.
40. Fox, “Move, Strike, Protect: An Alternative to the Primacy of Decisiveness and the Offense and Defense Dichotomy in Military Thinking.”
41. Kaushal, “Positional Warfare: A Paradigm for Understanding Twenty-first Century Conflict”, 35; Fox, “A Solution Looking for a Problem: Illuminating Misconceptions in Maneuver Warfare Doctrine,” 18–22.
42. Fox, “The Mosul Study Group and the Lessons of the Battle of Mosul,” 2–4.
43. Robinson et al., When the Islamic State Comes to Down, 123–25.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Amos C. Fox
Amos C. Fox is a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Reading. Additionally, Amos works as an executive with the Irregular Warfare Initiative and he hosts the wildly successful and influential Revolution in Military Affairs podcast.