REDD+: The Opportunity for Sustainable Management in Zagros Forests

ABSTRACT

The Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) projects aim to prevent deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions as a policy to combat climate changes. This article evaluates changes to the Zagros’ Forest cover in 20 years and predicts the implications of implementing the REDD+ project in the next two decades. Using Landsat Forest cover maps and a logistic regression model the potential for forest cover transfer to non-forest regions was modeled to identify regions at risk of deforestation. A Markov chain was implemented to predict the changes. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) was employed for validation, and the Voluntary Carbon Standard (VCS) was utilized to model the REDD+ project baseline to predict the forest cover changes. The findings indicate, 37,809 hectares of forest cover were lost in the past 20 years and with this trend, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions will increase. However, implementing the REDD+ project can prevent the release of 1,714,534.13 tCO2e. Therefore, this deteriorating forest possesses the potential to reduce CO2 emissions by preventing deforestation, identifying deforestation-prone areas and implementing the REDD+ project utilizing the methodology presented. Climate change mitigation, carbon sequestration, and biodiversity protection are just a few of the benefits of REDD+ projects that can aid sustainable forest management

KEYWORDS:

• REDD + project
• Zagros forests
• sustainable management
• modeling of forest cover changes
• climate changes

Notes

¹ https://clarklabs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Terrset-Manual.pdf