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ABSTRACT
The current changes in ratio of Russia’s main socioeconomic groups (working-age, youth, and elderly) are adversely impacting the country’s economic development. The purpose of this article is to reflect these changes during a demographic wave. To that end, we use official statistics and predicted population changes up to the year 2050. Our analysis shows that the number and share of the working-age population will decline, the elderly population will grow, and the youth population can either decrease or increase. This will lead to a decline in the number of people employed and to a significant increase in employment of the elderly, to a substantial demographic burden, and to a decrease both in standard of living and in volume of the domestic market.
Disclosure Statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Notes
1. “Chilslennost’ postoiannogo naseleniia—muzhchin, po vozrastu na 1 ianvaria” (available at www.fedstate.ru/indicator/31548); “Chislennost’ postoiannogo naseleniia—zhenshchin, po vozrastu na 1 ianvaria” (available at www.fedstat.ru/indicator/33459).
2. “Demograficheskii prognoz do 2035 goda” (available at www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/population/demography/#).
3. “Chislennost’ pensionerov i srednii razmer naznachennykh pensii po vidam pensionnogo obespecheniia i kategoriiam pensionerov (po sostoianiiu na 1 ianvaria)” (available at www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/urov/urov_p2.htm).
4. “Izraskhodovano sredstv za otchetnyi period Fondom sotsial’nogo strakohvaniia” (available at www.fedstat.ru/indicator/40595).
5. “Rozhdaemost’, smertnost’ i estestvennyi prirost” (available at www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/demo21.xls).
6. “Izraskhodovano sredstv za otchetnyi period … ”