![Sample our Politics & International Relations journals, sign in here to start your FREE access for 14 days]({"type":"image" , "src" : "/sda/5947/TOC-Subject-Sample-2021-Politics-International-Relations.jpg"})
ABSTRACT
What strategies do competitive authoritarian regimes use to target local-level opposition gains? How and why can these strategies vary subnationally? We analyse how national-level identity politics shapes regimes’ repression calculus at the local level. We suggest permissive prejudice leads regimes to choose harsher strategies in localities governed by stigmatized minority groups than in majority-led localities. To study this phenomenon, we identify three strategies varying in degrees of severity and visibility, and present an original dataset of repressive events in Turkey’s municipalities from 2016–2022. We argue anti-Kurdish prejudice explains the ruling AKP’s use of a harsh strategy of leader replacement in 149 cases of Kurdish-led municipalities yet only one Turkish-led municipality. Supporting our claim, the AKP used behind-the-scenes hamstringing to obstruct opposition mayors in Turkish-led municipalities. Our findings highlight the permissive and restrictive roles that identity politics plays in shaping local-level repression and wider patterns of authoritarian consolidation.
Acknowledgements
The authors express deep thanks to Veronica Anghel, Gözde Böcü, Esra Dilek, Berk Esen, Evgeny Finkel, Amy Austin Holmes, Adria Lawrence, Marc Lynch, Kelly McMann, Sibel Oktay, Peter Penar, Matthew Stenberg, the Post-Earthquake Zoom Writing Group, and anonymous reviewers.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 Arıkan, “Opinion.”
2 “Killing Competitive Authoritarianism Softly.”
3 For simplification, we use “HDP” throughout to encompass the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and its regionally oriented sibling party, the Democratic Regions Party (DBP).
4 Tepe and Alemdaroğlu, “How Authoritarians Win When They Lose”; Whiting and Kaya, “Autocratization, Permanent Emergency Rule and Local Politics”; Yavuzyılmaz, “When Local Becomes General”.
5 Gorokhovskaia, “What It Takes to Win When the Game is Rigged,” 975–92; Saikkonen, “Variation in Subnational Electoral Authoritarianism,” 437–58.
6 Buehler, “Safety-Valve Elections and the Arab Spring”; Wilkins, “Subnational Turnover, Accountability Politics, and Electoral Authoritarian Survival.”
7 In line with Davenport, we define repression broadly. Davenport, “State Repression and Political Order.”
8 Rozenas and Zhukov, “Mass Repression and Political Loyalty.”
9 Escribà-Folch, “Repression, Political Threats, and Survival under Autocracy.”
10 Amat, “State Repression and Opposition Survival in Pinochet’s Chile”; Finkel, “The Phoenix Effect of State Repression”; Parkinson, Beyond the Lines.
11 Bhasin and Gandhi, “Timing and Targeting of State Repression in Authoritarian Elections.”
12 Whiting and Kaya, “Autocratization, Permanent Emergency Rule and Local Politics.”
13 Bhasin and Gandhi, “Timing and Targeting of State Repression in Authoritarian Elections.”
14 Rozenas, “A Theory of Demographically Targeted Repression.”
15 Lachapelle, “Repression Reconsidered.”
16 Farole, “Eroding Support from Below”; Lust, “Democratization by Elections?”
17 Hintz and Banks, “Symbolic Amplification and Suboptimal Weapons Procurement”; Manekin and Mitts, “Effective for Whom?”; Menchik, “The Constructivist Approach to Religion and World Politics.”
18 Chaudhry, “The Assault on Civil Society”; Esberg, “Anticipating Dissent”; Lachapelle, “Repression Reconsidered.”
19 Morgan and Kelly, “Inequality, Exclusion, and Tolerance for Political Dissent in Latin America.”
20 Gerschewski, “The Three Pillars of Stability.”
21 “Local-Level Democratic Backsliding?” 12.
22 Fidalgo, “How Democratic Is Government Really?”; McMann, “Measuring Subnational Democracy”; Sidel, “Economic Foundations of Subnational Authoritarianism.”
23 On Turkey, see Tanca, “Subnational Regime Variation in Turkey.” As the author notes, subnational authoritarianism in Turkey’s Kurdish region results not from local authoritarians but from decades of central government practices.
24 Freeman, “Subnational Democracy in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes.”
25 Gelman, “The Dynamics of Subnational Authoritarianism”; Saikkonen, “Variation in Subnational Electoral Authoritarianism.”
26 Öktem, “Dilemmas of Subnational Democracy under Authoritarianism.”
27 Bozarslan, “Human Rights and the Kurdish Issue in Turkey”; Dorronsoro and Watts, “Toward Kurdish Distinctiveness in Electoral Politics”; Gümrükçü, “Ideology, Discourse, and Alliance Structures.”
28 Kuyucu, “Politics of Urban Regeneration in Turkey”; Tutkal, “Trustees Instead of Elected Mayors.”
29 Esen and Gumuscu, “Rising Competitive Authoritarianism in Turkey.”
30 Ugur-Cinar, “Elections and Democracy in Turkey.”
31 Gumuscu, “Dominance and Democratic Backsliding under AKP Rule in Turkey.”
32 Akçay, “Authoritarian Consolidation Dynamics in Turkey.”
33 Ongur, “Plus Ça Change … Re-Articulating Authoritarianism in the New Turkey.”
34 Esen and Gumuscu, “Killing Competitive Authoritarianism Softly”; Yavuzyılmaz, “When Local Becomes General,”.
35 On Hungary, for example, see Jakli and Stenberg, “Everyday Illiberalism.”
36 “The Criminal Subversion of Mexican Democracy,” 74.
37 Lust-Okar, Structuring Conflict in the Arab World; Selçuk and Hekimci, “The Rise of the Democracy–Authoritarianism Cleavage and Opposition Coordination in Turkey (2014–2019),” 1496–514.
38 Lust-Okar, Structuring Conflict in the Arab World.
39 Oliver, Ha, and Callen, “Local Elections and the Politics of Small-Scale Democracy.”
40 Esen and Yavuzyılmaz, “Opposition Coordination under a Competitive Authoritarian Regime”; Gorokhovskaia, “What It Takes to Win When the Game Is Rigged.”
41 On ethnoracial bias and tolerance of minority group dissent, see Morgan and Kelly, “Inequality, Exclusion, and Tolerance for Political Dissent in Latin America.”; on effectiveness of non-violent protest, see Manekin and Mitts, “Effective for Whom?”
42 Lust, “Democratization by Elections?”; Weiss, “Duelling Networks.”
43 “Gross Domestic Product by Province.”
44 Buehler, “Safety-Valve Elections and the Arab Spring”; Chen, Social Protest and Contentious Authoritarianism in China; Wilkins, “Subnational Turnover, Accountability Politics, and Electoral Authoritarian Survival.”
45 Farole, “Eroding Support from Below”; O’Dwyer and Stenberg, “Local-Level Democratic Backsliding?”
46 While the popularity and visibility of İmamoğlu and Yavaş as leaders of political centres raises regime incentives to replace them, these factors may also have a constraining effect on repression choice.
47 Gözaydın and Öztürk, “Turkey’s 2023 Election.” Our expectation that cost of repression calculations would deter the government from replacing İmamoğlu prior to the highly competitive May 2023 elections to avoid protests held.
48 While not a local-level politician, the jailing of high-profile former HDP co-chair and presidential candidate Selahattin Demirtaş also suggests identity politics at play.
49 Pettigrew, Prejudice, 3.
50 Nugent, “The Psychology of Repression and Polarization.”
51 Bonilla-Silva, “Rethinking Racism.”
52 Gillborn, “Education Policy as an Act of White Supremacy”; Van Dijk, “New (s) Racism.”
53 Yetkin, “Adalet Yürüyüşü Türkiye’yi değiştirmeye başladı aslında.”
54 Çalışkan, “Toward a New Political Regime in Turkey.”
55 Bektaş and Pamuk, “Huge Crowd Rallies in Istanbul against Turkey’s Post-Coup Crackdown | Reuters.”
56 Atak and Bayram, “Protest Policing Alla Turca.”
57 Arslanalp and Erkmen, “Repression without Exception.”
58 “Eren Erdem ‘terör örgütüne yardım’ suçlamasıyla tutuklandı”; “Canan Kaftancıoğlu’ndan skandal PKK paylaşımı.”
59 Burç, “One State, One Nation, One Flag—One Gender?”; Celep, “The Moderation of Turkey’s Kurdish Left”; Gunes, “The Transformation of Turkey’s Pro-Kurdish Democratic Movement.”
60 Aytaç and Çarkoğlu, “Ethnicity and Religiosity-Based Prejudice in Turkey”; Sarıgil, “Ethnic and Religious Prejudices in the Turkish Social Landscape.”
61 Ergin, “The Racialization of Kurdish Identity in Turkey,” 328.
62 Yegen, “‘Prospective-Turks’” or “Pseudo-Citizens.”
63 Saracoglu, Kurds of Modern Turkey; Schluter, “Kurdish Voices in Istanbul Workplaces”; Turgut and Çelik, “Kurdish Students’ Perceptions of Stigma and Their Destigmatization Strategies in Urban Contexts in Turkey”; Uluğ and Cohrs, “Examining the Ethos of Conflict by Exploring Lay People’s Representations of the Kurdish Conflict in Turkey.”
64 Brubaker, Nationalism Reframed.
65 “No Justice for Kurds.”
66 Çelik, “‘I Miss My Village!’”
67 Algan, “Local Broadcasting as Tactical Media”; Zeydanlıoğlu, “Turkey’s Kurdish Language Policy.”
68 Hintz and Quatrini, “Subversive Celebrations”; Yanık, “‘Nevruz’ or ‘Newroz’?”
69 Tezcür and Gurses, “Ethnic Exclusion and Mobilization”; Watts, Activists in Office.
70 Slater and Simmons, “Informative Regress.”
71 Staniland, “Counter-Insurgency and Violence Management.”
72 Bora, “Nationalist Discourses in Turkey”; Saraçoglu, “‘Exclusive Recognition.’”
73 Ercan, “Is Hope More Precious than Victory?”
74 Kadercan, “The Year of the Gray Wolf”; Martin, “The AK Party and the Kurds since 2014.”
75 Çelik and Blum, “Track II Interventions and the Kurdish Question in Turkey”; Kumral, “Democracy, Crisis and Geopolitics.”
76 Whiting and Kaya, “Autocratization, Permanent Emergency Rule and Local Politics,” 826.
77 “HDP’li Iki Belediye Başkanı Tutuklandı.”
78 Busygina and Paustyan, “Ready to Protest?”
79 Tepe and Alemdaroğlu, “How Authoritarians Win When They Lose,”; Tutkal, “Trustees Instead of Elected Mayors”; Yavuzyılmaz, “When Local Becomes General.”
80 Moe, “The Politics of Bureaucratic Structure.”
81 “The Assault on Civil Society.”
82 Szakonyi, “Candidate Filtering.”
83 Edel and Josua, “How Authoritarian Rulers Seek to Legitimize Repression”; Martin, “Capturing Desire.”
84 Zeno, “The Making of Sects.”
85 Caman, “Authoritarianization and Human Rights in Turkey”; Esberg, “Anticipating Dissent”; Lachapelle, “Repression Reconsidered”; Von Soest and Grauvogel, “Identity, Procedures and Performance.”
86 Edel and Josua, “How Authoritarian Rulers Seek to Legitimize Repression.”
87 Davenport, “Introducing DyoRep.”
88 “Turkey’s Phantom Coalition.”
89 Atak and Bayram, “Protest Policing Alla Turca.”
90 On media politicization, see Yesil, Media in New Turkey; Bulut, “‘Role Model’ Turkey’s Bankrupt News Media.”
91 Sayın, “İlk kez bir belediyesine kayyum atanan CHP, bundan sonra ne yapacak?”
92 Foy, “Kremlin Tells Media to Vilify Jailed Governor.”
93 “Urla Belediye Başkanı İbrahim Burak Oğuz kimdir?”
94 Sayın, “İlk kez bir belediyesine kayyum atanan CHP, bundan sonra ne yapacak?”
95 “Metropol, ’Cumhurbaşkanı adayları Yavaş ve İmamoğlu olursa sonuç ne olur?”
96 “Erdogan Accuses Opposition of Provocations Ahead of Tight Turkish Vote.”
97 Gürcan, “Türkiye’de terör.”
98 Martin, “The AK Party and the Kurds since 2014.”
99 Celep, “The Moderation of Turkey’s Kurdish Left.”
100 Coşkun, “‘Terör Meselesini Tamamen Kaldırana Kadar Durmayacağız.’”
101 Kaplan, “Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan.”
102 Bozdoğan, “‘İmamoğlu Ile Yavaş Çıksın Şunu Söylesinler’”; “‘PKK Lanet Bir Terör Örgütüdür.’”
103 “‘Derdi Verileri Korumak Değil Onları Alıp Bir Yerlere Servis Etmek.’”
104 “Erdoğan’dan İmamoğlu’na imalı ‘bağış’ yanıtı.”
105 “Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan’dan CHP’li Belediyelere Eleştiri!”
106 “Ankara ve İstanbul’un bağış hesapları bloklandı.”
107 “Adana’da ücretsiz ekmek dağıtan 3 gönüllü gözaltına alındı.”
108 “CHP’li belediyelerin ekmek dağıtması da yasaklandı!”
109 “‘İBB’de terörle iltisaklı personel’ polemiği.”
110 “İBB’ye yönelik ‘terör soruşturması’ hakkında neler biliniyor?”
111 “HDP’li belediyelere kayyum atanması pek çok kentte protesto edildi.”
112 “Kılıçdaroğlu’ndan hükümete kayyum eleştirisi.”
113 “Erdoğan.”
114 Yazıcıoğlu, “CHP’li Belediyelerde ‘Tehdit’ HDP’lilerde ‘Kayyum’ Gerilimi.”
115 “Yerel gazeteciden Zeydan Karalar’a kayyım tehdidi”; Öztürk, “Samsun’da İYİ Partili belediye için kayyım tartışması”; “Rize’de kayyum iddiası halkı sokağa döktü!”
116 “İmamoğlu için siyasi yasak kararı, şimdi ne olacak?”
117 Lust-Okar, Structuring Conflict in the Arab World; Selçuk and Hekimci, “The Rise of the Democracy–Authoritarianism Cleavage and Opposition Coordination in Turkey (2014–2019).”
118 Goldring and Matthews, “To Purge or Not to Purge?”
119 Chaudhry, “The Assault on Civil Society.”
120 Edel and Josua, “How Authoritarian Rulers Seek to Legitimize Repression”; Esberg, “Anticipating Dissent.”
121 Bellin, “Reconsidering the Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East.”
122 El Kurd, “Gateway to Dissent.”
123 Panzano, “Autocratization as Ethnocratization?”
124 Heydemann and Leenders, “Authoritarian Learning and Authoritarian Resilience.”
125 Rovny, “Antidote to Backsliding.”
126 Jenne, “Is Nationalism or Ethnopopulism on the Rise Today?”
127 Halikiopoulou and Vlandas, “What Is New and What Is Nationalist about Europe’s New Nationalism?”; Vieten and Poynting, “Contemporary Far-Right Racist Populism in Europe.”
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Lisel Hintz
Lisel Hintz is an assistant professor at Johns Hopkins University SAIS.
Harun Ercan
Harun Ercan is a PhD Candidate at SUNY Binghamton.