Risk evolution from causes to consequences of engine room fires on ships by mapping bow-tie into fuzzy Bayesian network

Abstract

An integrated quantitative risk analysis methodology based on the BT (bow-tie) and FBN (fuzzy Bayesian network) is developed in the present study to evaluate the risk evolution from causes to consequences of engine room fires on ships. Given limited historical statistics on engine room fire accidents, a probabilistic estimation model based on fuzzy sets is employed to determine prior probabilities of BN nodes. A case study of the engine room fire is carried out to demonstrate the soundness and applicability of the proposed methodology. Moreover, scenario analysis is implemented to assess how safety barriers can mitigate escalation of consequences triggered by engine room fires, while sensitivity analysis ranks critical hazards and quantifies correlations between different consequences and risk events within engine room fires. The results indicate that mechanical faults, improper bunker operation, improper maintenance, circuit overload or short circuit and insulation aging or damage are the main direct risk events triggering engine room fires on ships. The effectiveness of safety barrier (fire extinguishing devices) can play a decisive role in preventing further escalation of controlled fire incidents.

KEYWORDS:

• Engine room fires
• risk evolution
• safety barriers
• bow-tie; FBN

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Laihao Ma: Methodology, Writing-original draft.

Xiaoxue Ma: Investigation, Supervision.

Liguang Chen: Visualisation.

Additional information

Funding

The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided by the Liaoning Provincial Social Science Planning Fund (L22CGL004) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (grant No. 3132023218; 3132023522).