Applying structured scenario fusion to address multifaceted strategic challenges

Abstract

This paper proposes an applied method by which to fuse multiple independently developed scenarios to serve as a basis for strategic studies in the national security operations research community. First, it describes the need to fuse scenarios methodically as a consequence of the evolution of global security conditions and as a matter of logic that might be otherwise overlooked. Second, it proposes applying Structured Scenario Fusion (SSF), a method that uses three stylized tables to systematically and transparently record the process of scenario fusion. Third, it provides an example application set in a hypothetical study of future security conditions in Somalia. It concludes that SSF offers a promising way to improve the pedigree, realism, and logic of assumptions underpinning scenario-based strategic studies, as well as the quality of strategic decisions and plans thereby justified.

Keywords:

• strategic planning
• defence studies
• practice of OR
• scenario development
• structured scenario fusion
• counterfactual reasoning

This paper was produced under a United States Government contract, number M00264-06-D-0003, awarded by the United States Marine Corps. The information contained in this article is unclassified and approved for public release by the Operations Analysis Division of the US Marine Corps Combat Development Command. The case contained in this article is illustrative only and is not an account of an actual project. Karen Grattan (Group W Inc.) contributed to the design of the method described herein.

This paper was produced under a United States Government contract, number M00264-06-D-0003, awarded by the United States Marine Corps. The information contained in this article is unclassified and approved for public release by the Operations Analysis Division of the US Marine Corps Combat Development Command. The case contained in this article is illustrative only and is not an account of an actual project. Karen Grattan (Group W Inc.) contributed to the design of the method described herein.