The impact of Covid-19 on demographic components in Spain, 2020–31: A scenario approach

Abstract

While considerable attention has been paid to the impact of Covid-19 on mortality and fertility, few studies have attempted to evaluate the pandemic’s effect on international migration. We analyse the impact of Covid-19 on births, deaths, and international migration in Spain during 2020, comparing observed data with estimated values assuming there had been no pandemic. We also assess the consequences of three post-pandemic scenarios on the size and structure of the population to 2031. Results show that in 2020, excess mortality equalled 16.2 per cent and births were 6.5 per cent lower than expected. Immigration was the most affected component, at 36.0 per cent lower than expected, while emigration was reduced by 23.8 per cent. If net migration values recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, the size and structure of the population in 2031 will be barely affected. Conversely, if levels do not recover until 2025, there will be important changes to Spain’s age structure.

Keywords:

• Covid-19
• international migration
• births
• deaths
• population projections
• ageing
• Spain

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 Miguel González-Leonardo is based at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital), and Jeroen Spijker is based at the Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics. Please direct all correspondence to Miguel González-Leonardo, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schloßpl. 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria; or by E-mail: [email protected]

2 The authors gratefully acknowledge funding from IIASA and the National Member Organizations that support the institute. Funding for this work was also provided by the European Commission’s Horizon 2020 Framework Programme under H2020 Excellent Science and H2020 European Research Council (grant number ERC-2019-CoG-GA864616-HEALIN) and by the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (grant numbers PID2020-113665RB-I00, PID2020-113934RB-I00, and RYC-2013-14851).