Pandemics and socio-economic status. Evidence from the plague of 1630 in northern Italy

Abstract

This paper investigates the biological, socio-economic, and institutional factors shaping the individual risk of death during a major pre-industrial epidemic. We use a micro-demographic database for an Italian city (Carmagnola) during the 1630 plague to explore in detail the survival dynamics of the population admitted to the isolation hospital (lazzaretto). We develop a theoretical model of admissions to the lazzaretto, for better interpretation of the observational data. We explore how age and sex shaped the individual risk of death, and we provide a one-of-a-kind study of the impact of socio-economic status. We report an inversion of the normal mortality gradient by status for those interned at the lazzaretto. The rich enjoyed a greater ability to make decisions about their hospitalization, but this backfired. Instead, the poor sent to the lazzaretto faced a relatively low risk of death because they enjoyed better conditions than they would have experienced outside the hospital.

Keywords:

• pandemics
• plague
• historical demography
• mortality crises
• survival
• poverty
• health inequality
• seventeenth century
• Italy

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Archival sources

AS1. Letter of the representative of the Magistrato sopra la Sanità dated 16 July 1630. Archivio Storico Comunale di Carmagnola, Sanità Pubblica—Malattie Infettive, fas. 1.

AS2. Individui stati condotti al Lazzaretto [Individuals who have been brought to the Lazzaretto]. Archivio Storico Comunale di Carmagnola, Sanità Pubblica—Malattie Infettive, fas. 1.

AS3. Consegna di tutti li capi di casa si di carmagnola che vi habitanti [Declaration of all the household heads from Carmagnola or who have residence there]. Archivio Storico Comunale di Torino, Camera dei conti di Piemonte, art. 531, mazzo 4, Fasc. 26, 1621.

AS4. Letter of the Magistrato sopra la Sanità to the Carmagnola government dated 9 July 1630. Archivio Storico Comunale di Carmagnola, Sanità Pubblica—Malattie Infettive, fas. 1.

Notes

1 Guido Alfani is based at the Carlo F. Dondena Centre at Bocconi University and IGIER at Bocconi University. Marco Bonetti and Mattia Fochesato are both based at the Carlo F. Dondena Centre at Bocconi University.

2 Please direct all correspondence to Guido Alfani, Bocconi University, via Roentgen 1, 20136 Milano (MI), Italy; or by E-mail: [email protected].

3 The complete replication package can be downloaded from https://www.openicpsr.org/openicpsr/project/186342/version/V1/view.

4 There are no funders to report.