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Abstract
By starting the war with Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has trampled the cooperative and democratic security order in Europe agreed upon in 1990, seeking to replace it with the tyranny of empire. If Russian aggression is not repelled in Ukraine, Moscow will be in a strong position to threaten and coerce the rest of Europe. The West needs to prepare for a long war. Sweden applied for NATO membership out of a sense of moral outrage, but also felt compelled to follow the realist instincts of its close geographical and historical neighbour Finland, which sensed imminent danger. In Europe as in Sweden, idealism and practical compulsion have converged. The West must decisively turn back Russia’s assault on Europe’s peaceful order by helping Ukrainians preserve their nation substantially intact.
Notes
1 See Robert Dalsjö, Michael Jonsson and Johan Norberg, ‘A Brutal Examination: Russian Military Capability in Light of the Ukraine War’, Survival, vol. 64, no. 3, June–July 2022, pp. 7–28.
2 See ‘Ukraine’s Commander-in-chief on the Breakthrough He Needs to Beat Russia’, The Economist, 1 November 2023, https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/01/ukraines-commander-in-chief-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia.
3 See Franz-Stefan Gady and Michael Kofman, ‘Ukraine’s Strategy of Attrition’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 2, April–May 2023, pp. 7–22; and Michael Jonsson and Johan Norberg, ‘Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Military Scenarios and Outcomes’, Survival, vol. 64, no. 6, December 2022–January 2023, pp. 91–122.
4 See, for example, Carter Malkasian, ‘The Korea Model: Why an Armistice Offers the Best Hope for Peace in Ukraine’, Foreign Affairs, vol. 103, no. 4, July/August 2023, pp. 36–51; and Sergey Radchenko, ‘This War May Be Heading for a Cease-fire’, New York Times, 24 February 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/24/opinion/ukraine-russia-war-korea.html.
5 See François Heisbourg, ‘How to End a War: Some Historical Lessons for Ukraine’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 4, August–September 2023, pp. 7–24.
6 For a plausible way forward, see, in this issue of Survival, Franz Stefan-Gady and Michael Kofman, ‘Making Attrition Work: A Viable Theory of Victory for Ukraine’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 1, February–March 2024, pp. 7–24.
7 See Hannah Aries, Bastian Giegerich and Tim Lawrenson, ‘The Guns of Europe: Defence-industrial Challenges in a Time of War’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 3, June–July 2023, pp. 7–24.
8 See Robert Dalsjö, ‘Sweden and its Deterrence Deficit: Quick to React, Yet Slow to Act’, in Nora Vanaga and Toms Rostoks (eds), Deterring Russia in Europe: Defence Strategies for Neighbouring States (London: Routledge, 2018).
9 The Swedish foreign minister at the time reportedly said: ‘Damn Finland, now we might have to join too.’ See Maggie Strömberg and Torbjörn Nilsson, ‘Så gick det till när S vände om Nato’ [This is what happened when the Social Democrats turned around on NATO], Svenska Dagbladet, 2 July 2022, https://www.svd.se/a/Qy1gXx/sa-gick-det-till-nar-magdalena-andersson-kovande-om-nato.
10 On Sweden’s transition into NATO, see Viltaute Zarembaite, Christopher Skaluba and Ann Marie Dailey, ‘Navigating Sweden’s NATO Membership: Insights for Political and Operational Adaptation’, Issue Brief, Atlantic Council, 22 December 2023, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/navigating-swedens-nato-membership-insights-for-political-and-operational-adaptation/.
11 See, for example, Thomas Graham, Getting Russia Right (Cambridge: Polity, 2023).
12 US Diplomatic Mission to Germany, ‘A Europe Whole and Free’, remarks to the citizens of Mainz, Federal Republic of Germany, by George Bush, 31 May 1989, https://usa.usembassy.de/etexts/ga6-890531.htm.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Robert Dalsjö
Robert Dalsjö is Director of Research at the Swedish Defence Research Agency. This article was adapted from a Survival Online blog post that was published in January 2024.