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Abstract
Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, and Israel’s ruthless response, dislodged Ukraine from the top slot on the global security agenda. While the outcome of the Russia–Ukraine war remains unclear, the Gaza war has fuelled geopolitical trends that compromise Kyiv’s position and with which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy must contend if Ukraine is to survive. The most important linkage is that the United States is security guarantor and armourer for both Ukraine and Israel. Ukraine must now compete for military assistance and attention with the formidable Israeli lobby. Zelenskyy will also need to outpace two trends running against Ukraine, likely reinforced by the Gaza war: the increasing inclination of some US allies to de-link their security strategies from those of the United States, and the normalisation of authoritarian power projection, including that of Iran. Generating mass among international actors deeply divided on international security policy would exhaust a great power. It is even more to expect of Ukraine.
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John Raine
John Raine is IISS Senior Adviser for Geopolitical Due Diligence. This article was adapted from an IISS Online Analysis that was published on 5 October 2023 at https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2023/10/zelenskyys-race-against-geopolitics/.