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Survival
Global Politics and Strategy
Volume 66, 2024 - Issue 2
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Abstract

In Ukraine itself and among America’s NATO allies, there is disbelief that in a United States with still-strong public support for Ukraine, and two Houses of Congress that reflect that support in large, bipartisan, pro-Ukraine majorities, $60 billion in renewed military aid for Ukraine may remain forever blocked. The reason is that Donald Trump, now the front-runner for the forthcoming US presidential election, wants to deny President Joe Biden a political victory and has prevailed on House Republicans to grant his wish. If America’s democracy is on the ballot in the election, so, it would seem, is its global power. Even if Biden is re-elected, the Ukraine impasse suggests that may not be enough to salvage either.

Notes

1 White House, ‘Remarks of President Joe Biden – State of the Union Address as Prepared for Delivery’, 7 March 2024, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/03/07/remarks-of-president-joe-biden-state-of-the-union-address-as-prepared-for-delivery-2/.

2 William Saletan, ‘Donald Trump Is the GOP’s Warlord’, Slate, 28 January 2016, https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2016/01/the-gop-is-a-failed-state-donald-trump-is-its-warlord.html.

3 See, for example, Kayla Guo, ‘How Congress Could Bypass Republican Opposition to Funding Ukraine’, New York Times, 13 February 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/13/us/politics/congress-discharge-petition-ukraine.html.

4 See Nigel Gould-Davies, ‘Ukraine: The Balance of Resources and the Balance of Resolve’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 2, April–May 2024, pp. 55–62.

5 Quoted in Brett Samuels, ‘Trump Calls Border Bill “a Death Wish” for Republican Party: “Don’t be STUPID!!!”’, Hill, 5 February 2024, https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4448556-trump-calls-border-bill-a-death-wish-for-republican-party-dont-be-stupid/.

6 Quoted in Nicholas Riccardi and Justin Spike, ‘Trump Meets with Hungary’s Leader, Viktor Orbán, Continuing His Embrace of Autocrats’, Associated Press, 8 March 2024, https://apnews.com/article/trump-orban-hungary-conservatives-autocrats-biden-97d6998f747d3543f2f1df069b0f9165.

7 Quoted in Jaroslav Lukiv, ‘Trump Will Not Give a Penny to Ukraine – Hungary PM Orban’, BBC, 11 March 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68533351.

8 Joseph Gedeon, ‘Trump Calls Putin “Genius” and “Savvy” for Ukraine Invasion’, Politico, 23 February 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923.

9 See Jonathan Stevenson, ‘How Trump Sabotaged Ukraine’, New York Review, 11 March 2022, https://www.nybooks.com/online/2022/03/11/how-trump-sabotaged-ukraine/.

10 Dana H. Allin, ‘Impeachment, Trump and US Foreign Policy’, Survival, vol. 62, no. 1, February–March 2020, p. 221.

11 John Bolton, The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2020), p. 465.

12 Quoted in Michelle Goldberg, ‘“The Beacon Has Gone Out”: What Trump and Giuliani Have Wrought’, New York Times, 12 October 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/opinion/sunday/ukraine-trump.html.

13 Cameron Joseph, ‘John Bolton: Trump Made It “That Much Easier” for Putin to Invade Ukraine’, Vice News, 1 March 2022, https://www.vice.com/en/article/3abjgn/john-bolton-interview-russia-ukraine.

14 Michael Gold, ‘Trump Says He Gave NATO Allies Warning: Pay In or He’d Urge Russian Aggression’, New York Times, 10 February 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/10/us/politics/trump-nato-russia.html.

15 ‘Normalcy’ for normality was popularised by president Warren G. Harding on the eve of an earlier isolationist idyl.

16 See Benjamin Rhode, ‘Europe Without America’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 2, April–May 2024, pp. 7–18.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Dana H. Allin

Dana H. Allin is an IISS Senior Fellow and Editor of Survival, and an adjunct professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS–Europe) in Bologna, Italy.

Jonathan Stevenson

Jonathan Stevenson is an IISS Senior Fellow and Managing Editor of Survival.

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