The Arab Gulf states in the Asian energy market: is the Russia-Ukraine war a game changer?

ABSTRACT

The Arab Gulf states and Russia have traditionally been major suppliers of hydrocarbons to the energy-poor countries of Asia. This article considers the extent to which engagement by the Arab Gulf states in the Asian energy market is likely to be significantly impacted by the Russia-Ukraine war, which began in February 2022. On the one hand, the war is likely to increase the intensity of Russia engagement with Asia and to recalibrate relations with certain Asian partners, with implications for the Gulf states. On the other hand, Asia as theatre of competition for energy suppliers – and the Gulf states as the dominant oil and gas suppliers for the region – has roots in pre-2022 trends and is unlikely to change. The qualitative analysis, supported by extensive use of diverse secondary datasets on the energy trade, concludes that for the Gulf states, the Russia-Ukraine war is less an exogenous, sudden, and “critical juncture” event than an acceleration of existing trends in the Asian energy market.

KEYWORDS:

• Asia-GCC
• Russia-Ukraine war
• oil
• gas
• energy
• fossil fuels

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 The terms “Arab Gulf states” and “Gulf states” are used interchangeably in this article. For the purpose of this article, they refer to the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) and Iraq; they share a common geographical location on the Arabian Peninsula and they are hydrocarbon exporters.

2 An exception is Meidan et al. (2022).

3 Residual fuel oil is a type of petroleum product used mainly by power stations and in ships.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Li-Chen Sim

Li-Chen Sim is an Assistant Professor at the Institute of International and Civil Security at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi, UAE, and a non-resident scholar at the US Middle East Institute, Washington D C. She is a specialist in the international political economy of Russian and Gulf energy. Her research interests include energy transition politics in the Middle East, Gulf-Asia exchanges, and Russia-Middle East interactions. She is the author of journal articles, chapters, policy pieces, and books including Asian Perceptions of Gulf Security (2023), Low Carbon Energy in the Middle East and North Africa (2022), and The Rise & Fall of Privatization in the Russian Oil Industry (2008).