Rethinking change in Japan's security policy: punctuated equilibrium theory and Japan's response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine

ABSTRACT

Change in Japanese foreign and security policy has long been characterized as “incremental”. However, Japan’s response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine provides an opportunity to reconsider this paradigm. In the aftermath of the 2014 annexation of Crimea, then-Prime Minister Abe Shinzō chose not to put Crimea on the agenda, prioritizing instead relations with Russia. However, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio responded to the 2022 invasion by increasing ties with NATO, promising to double Japan’s military spending, and acquiring capabilities that were once considered off-limits, including cruise missiles. This dramatic policy shift is analyzed using punctuated equilibrium theory (PET). We find that the 2022 invasion became a focusing event, shifting public and elite opinion in unison. Where Crimea was played down, Ukraine was clearly linked to Asia, to a possible invasion of Taiwan, and as a threat to the entire liberal international order under which Japan had prospered. We argue that overall change in Japan’s policy has not been continuous, rather, focusing events, such as Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, 9/11, and the 2012 “national security crisis” have precipitated fundamental change. Thus, we conclude that PET provides a better understanding of policy change than incrementalism.

KEYWORDS:

• Security policy
• foreign policy
• punctuated equilibrium theory
• Japan
• Russia
• incrementalism

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Paul O’Shea

Paul O'Shea is Senior Lecturer at the Centre for East and Southeast Asian Studies, Lund University. He writes about international relations in East Asia, Japanese foreign policy, and other topics such as food security, military bases, and alliances.

Sebastian Maslow

Sebastian Maslow is Senior Lecturer in Political Science and International Relations at Sendai Shirayuri Women's College, Sendai, Japan. His research interests cover contemporary Japanese politics. A long-time resident of Japan, Sebastian has commented on Japanese and East Asian security affairs for various media outlets, including The Guardian, Neue Zürcher Zeitung, Deutsche Welle, The Japan Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg, and The Wall Street Journal. His research has been published in Japan Focus, Asian Survey, Asian Security, and Pacific Affairs, and the Australian Journal of International Affairs. He is the co-editor of Crisis Narratives, Institutional Change, and the Transformation of the Japanese State (SUNY Press, 2021), and Risk State: Japan’s Foreign Policy in an Age of Uncertainty (Routledge, 2015).