Melting ice and rising seas – connecting projected change in Antarctica’s ice sheets to communities in Aotearoa New Zealand

ABSTRACT

Changes in global mean sea level are a clear indicator of a warming climate, but local factors including land subsidence or uplift, cause changes in relative sea level that drive shoreline shifts. These local changes and their impact on coastal hazards matter to coastal communities. NZ SeaRise produced relative sea level projections for Aotearoa to include the latest global climate and Antarctic Ice Sheet research and estimates of vertical land movement at high spatial resolution. Research-informed communication to the public and planners included a web-based projections tool supplemented by written and visual narratives, and a media engagement plan. This communication, and analysis of media impact, provided a case study for audience-relevant information on sea-level rise. Information regarding shoreline change and evolving hazards, required for risk assessment, was not included in the NZ SeaRise projections. New research is needed to reduce uncertainty in future Antarctic Ice Sheet contribution to sea level, link changes in sea surface height to our dynamic land surface and enhance communication approaches. Several examples of the required research are presented here but ongoing efforts must refine the timing and magnitude of coastline change, better define coastal hazards and risks, and develop appropriate adaptation strategies for unavoidable climate change impacts.

KEYWORDS:

• Sea-level rise, Antarctica, ice sheets, coastal adaptation, science communication

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment through the NZ Sea Rise Programme [Contract RTVU1705] and Our Changing Coast Programme [RTVU2206]. Aspects of DL, NG, AA-B, RD, SJ, KO, NT, and RL's contributions were also funded through the New Zealand Antarctic Science Platform [Contract ANTA1801].