Climate change adaptation through an integrative lens in Aotearoa New Zealand

ABSTRACT

Climate change is being felt across all human and natural systems in Aotearoa New Zealand and is projected to worsen this decade as impacts compound and cascade through natural system and sectoral dependencies. The effectiveness of adaptation is constrained by how fast greenhouse gas emissions are reduced globally, the pace of change, the frequency and progression of impacts, and the capacity of our natural, societal and political systems to respond. We explore how these systems and sectors interact with existing and projected climate change stressors by categorising climate change impacts (Trends and Events) and consequential thresholds (Thresholds), and by grouping systems and sectors by types (Typologies). This approach has identified commonalities and differences between the typologies which are illustrated with examples. Critical constraints and opportunities for adaptation have been identified to guide sector adaptation decision-making and for ongoing adaptation progress and effectiveness monitoring. Constraints are found across all sectors, and opportunities exist to address them through modelling and projections, monitoring frameworks, decision tools and measures, governance coordination and integration of the Māori worldview of the relationship between humans and nature. However, limits to adaptation exist and will increase over time unless all sectors and all nations urgently reduce their emissions.

KEYWORDS:

• Climate change adaptation
• complexity
• uncertainty
• natural ecosystems
• built environment
• kaitiakitanga
• monitoring
• governance

Acknowledgements

All authors were either coordinating lead author, lead author or contributing author in IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Working Group II, Chapter 11, Chapters 1 & 3, Cross chapter papers, Technical Report, Summary for Policy Makers and thank their respective agencies for their time to complete the paper. The authors wish to thank Amanda Riley for graphics support for Figures 1 and 2, Anne Austin and Rebecca Priestley for proofreading and to three anonymous reviewers for helpful feedback.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 When using ‘systems and sectors’ in this paper the authors are distinguishing between natural and human systems and the economic sectors dependent on the natural and human systems within which they operate.

2 ‘State change’ in this context means crossing a physical or social threshold to another state where the consequences are unknown and unpredictable and require different approaches and institutions.

3 Maladaptation is defined as ‘actions or inactions that may lead to increased risk of adverse climate-related outcomes, increased vulnerability to climate change, or diminished welfare, now or in the future’ (Noble et al. 2014, p. 857).

4 Māori terms used in this paper. Hapū/iwi: an iwi is a Māori kinship group or tribe, generally comprising several hapū descended from a common ancestor. Mahinga kai: to work the food. Marae: a Māori meeting house and surrounding area. Te Ohu Kaimoana: the Māori Fisheries Trust a representative organization for protecting iwi and Māori customary and commercial interests in fisheries and the marine environment. Wāhi tapu: a sacred place to Māori. Te Reo Māori me ōna tikanga: the Māori language and its cultural practices. Tikanga: Māori custom and traditional values. Rangatiratanga: self determination.

5 Resilience is defined as ‘the capacity of interconnected social, economic and ecological systems to cope with a hazardous event, trend or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain their essential function, identity and structure’ (Matthews et al. 2021, p. 2246).

6 CO₂ fertilisation is the potential increase in photosynthesis rate and leaf transpiration decrease in plants due to increase in CO₂ in the atmosphere.