Climate change impacts on Aotearoa New Zealand: a horizon scan approach

ABSTRACT

Many of the implications of climate change for Aotearoa (New Zealand) remain unclear. To identify so-far unseen or understudied threats and opportunities related to climate change we applied a horizon-scanning process. First, we collated 171 threats and opportunities across our diverse fields of research. We then scored each item for novelty and potential impact and finally reduced the list to ten threats and ten opportunities through a prioritisation process. Within the 20 items presented in this paper, we uncover a range of climate-related costs and benefits. Unexpected opportunities evolve from economic reorganisation and changes to perspectives. The threats we highlight include the overall failure to interconnect siloed policy responses, as well as those relating to extreme events and feedbacks, as well as pressures that undermine the coherence of society. A major theme of our work is that climate change effects in Aotearoa are likely to transgress the boundaries of research disciplines, industry sectors and policy systems, emphasising the importance of developing transdisciplinary methods and approaches. We use this insight to connect potential responses to climate change with Aotearoa’s culture and geography.

KEYWORDS:

• Climate change
• adaptation
• mitigation
• transdisciplinarity
• climate consequences
• complex systems
• extreme events

Acknowledgements

We thank Te Pūnaha Matatini for funding the workshop that stimulated this mahi. Thanks to Inga Smith and Mubashir Qasim for discussions on the paper and the wider TPM community who contributed to the original list of threats and opportunities. We thank three anonymous reviewers who provided detailed and thoughtful comments on a draft of the manuscript.

Disclosure statement

Shaun Hendy declares that he is a co-founder and employee of Toha, a New Zealand-based company that builds digital marketplaces for environmental action. Sandra J. Velarde was a staff at the New Zealand Climate Change Commission during most of the writing period. She is currently staff at WSP, an international consultancy company. Her Primary Industries team advises government and private sector on rural infrastructure, water resources, sustainable land and climate change adaptation and mitigation. All other authors do not have any conflicts of interest to declare.

Notes

1 https://www.projectkainga.co.nz/

2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=h4y1yquH2fQ&t=766s

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Te Pūnaha Matatini.