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Abstract
We assess if Norwegian aid policies, widely heralded for being morally driven, rewards pro-poor governance. If higher levels of equitable access to health attracts higher levels of Norwegian aid, one might argue that Norwegian aid prioritizes the poor, which is both morally good and instrumentally valuable. We find that total Norwegian aid and aid for health and social development are economically less valuable to recipients with greater equity of access to health. Yet, one may argue that this result is due to Norway picking the hard cases, those resistant to change. Our results show, however, that Norwegian aid increases to places that have become more equitable over time while simultaneously remaining lower to currently equitable locations. Whether Norway is ‘chasing success’ or actually ‘rewarding reform’ is hard to untangle although, in our opinion, a sound donor strategy should be one that targets currently favorable policy, signaling to laggards that change is rewarded. Granger causality tests for assessing the likelihood of reverse causality suggest that higher levels of equity are more likely to ‘Granger cause’ aid (negatively) than the other way around, suggesting that aid flows are unlikely to be causing equity in the short run. If in fact a country such as Norway fails the poor, at least on this important dimension of equity, then it is hardly reasonable to expect differently from others. The results taken together support critics who suggest that aid often bypasses the poor.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 Indeed, there are several recent studies showing positive effects of aid. See Arndt et al. (Citation2015). Roodman (Citation2008).
2 See for example official statements by NORAD. https://www.norad.no/tema/global-helse/norsk-helsebistand/ (last accessed February 9, 2022).
3 See https://www.norad.no/tema/global-helse/norsk-helsebistand/ (last accessed August 29, 2022). See also https://www.norad.no/om-bistand/dette-er-fns-barekraftsmal/mal-3-god-helse/ (last accessed August 29, 2022).
4 See NORAD´s website: https://resultater.norad.no/geografi/?show=bistand (last accessed February 10, 2022).
5 See https://resultater.norad.no/sektor/helse-og-sosial-sektor. (Last accessed February 13, 2022).
6 The VDEM data covers countries with at least 250,000 inhabitants and more. See https://www.v-dem.net (Last accessed February 10, 2022).
7 See https://resultater.norad.no/en. (Last accessed, February 10, 2022).
8 See https://www.norges-bank.no/en/topics/Statistics/exchange_rates/?tab=currency&id=USD. (Last accessed February 10, 2022).
9 See https://www.bea.gov/data/prices-inflation/gdp-price-deflator. (Last accessed, February 10, 2022).
10 See appendix for the exact coding scheme.
11 See https://ucdp.uu.se (last accessed February 11, 2022). We use civil wars defines as those that may also contain external interventions.
12 This calculation is based on the standardized coefficient based on the logged aid data, which is then used to calculate the actual dollar value using the unlogged aid flow values in USD.
13 The Center for Disease Control (CDC) lists the cheapest dengue vaccine, for example, at $20 per dose. See: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/programs/vfc/awardees/vaccine-management/price-list/index.html. (Last accessed February 12, 2022). In Africa, even a simple bed net would cost roughly $5. See https://www.cdcfoundation.org/bednets. (Last accessed February 12, 2022).
14 We use the compound growth rate calculated as ((health equity t-1 – health equity t-5)/health equity t-5).
15 We estimate Granger causality regressions by examining various lag lengths. The optimal lag length was 3 years. We estimated both year and country fixed effects in the models, estimating clustered standard errors robust to heteroscedasticity.
16 The method is implemented in STATA with the user-written program ‘sensemakr.’
17 See https://www.cgdev.org/cdi#/. (Last accessed February 13, 2022).
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Indra de Soysa
Indra de Soysa (PhD) is Professor of Political Science at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. He is interested in political, economic and social outcomes of economic liberalization, the effects of institutions, and the causes of peace and prosperity. He is currently researching questions of governance and societal peace. He is currently “Visiting Fellow” at the Department of Criminology, University of Cambridge. His publications appear in World Development, American Sociological Review, International Organization, Journal of Conflict Resolution, European Journal of Criminology, International Studies Quarterly, Energy Policy, Resource Policy, Social Science & Medicine among several others. He is a member of the Royal Norwegian Academy.
Krishna C. Vadlamannati
Krishna C. Vadlamannati is an Associate Professor at the School of Politics and International Relations (SPIRe), University College Dublin (UCD), Ireland. He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Heidelberg, Germany. He is the current Editor of Journal of International Development. His recent research appears in Journal of Development Economics, World Development, Oxford Economic Papers, Journal of Development Studies, Journal of Peace Research, among several others.
Rebecca Ruth
Rebecca Ruth holds a Master's degree in Human Geography from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. She is interested in issues concerning global economic integration, human development, and environmental sustainability. She is currently employed at the Norwegian Ministry of Environment and Climate.