Contributions to scenario methodology from approach to sociotechnical transitions: a theoretical-methodological essay

ABSTRACT

Scenario methodology is complex, with numerous derivative approaches and variations. Although, its multiple techniques and tools make it possible to analyze problems considered ‘wicked’ – of low probability and high impact. Given this, our theoretical-methodological essay initially describes the premises and compares the features of the scenario Schools: Intuitive-Logics, Probabilistic Modified Trends, and La Prospective. The interfaces and complementarities among the methods applied for the scenarios and the approach of sociotechnical systems (STS) are made explicit in order to highlight their theoretical contributions to qualify the rigorous operationalisation of the definition of scenarios, considering the particularities of each School. Our effort provides insights that enhance the use of the scenario methodology to contextualise scientific investigations in a complex, uncertain, and dynamic environment, characteristic of contemporary society, in which disruptive technological innovations encourage the occurrence of phenomena that find theoretical support in the approach of sociotechnical transitions.

KEYWORDS:

• Scenario building
• technological innovation
• scientific research
• sociotechnical systems

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This study was financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brasil (CAPES) - Finance Code 001.

Notes on contributors

Alice Munz Fernandes

Alice Munz Fernandes Manager, MSc management and doctoral student in agribusiness at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, with experience in beef conventional production chain and technologies in agribusiness, mainly in cell-based meat.

Ângela Rozane Leal de Souza

Ângela Rozane Leal de Souza Accountant, PhD, professor in the Center for Studies and Research in Agribusiness at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, with studies on cost and viability analysis of new technologies in agribusiness.

Jean Philippe Palma Revillion

Jean Philippe Revillion Agronomy engineer, PhD, professor in the Center for Studies and Research in Agribusiness and the Institute of Food Science and Technology at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, with research in areas of technological innovation, new product development, sector competitiveness and food product marketing.