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Abstract
What are the long-run consequences of racial violence on intergenerational mobility? Do its impacts extend to the broader community? Using newly available longitudinal data covering much of the US population from 1989–2015, this study documents two results. First, it establishes a statistical association between the severity of lynching of Black Americans and long-run economic outcomes across the Southern United States. Counties that experienced racial violence most intensely in the past have lower levels of Black upward mobility today. Second, although most lynch victims were Black males, their long-run consequences are equally observable for the current generation of both Black males and females. Living in counties that experienced lynchings in the 19th and 20th centuries reduces Black upwardly mobile in the 21st century. These findings demonstrate that collective violence may hinder long-term intergenerational mobility for the broader affected community, irrespective of temporal proximity or sex.
Acknowledgments
The author is grateful to Christian Davenport, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, workshop participants at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), London School of Economics, and journal’s editors and three anonymous reviewers for helpful comments and suggestions.
Data Availability Statement
The data and materials that support the findings of this study are available in the Harvard Dataverse at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/4VO8XT
Notes
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2 I capitalize Black but not white. While there is a debate as to whether white should also be capitalized, I follow organizations such as the Associated Press and The New York Times, which argue that, in the context of race and culture, Black reflects a shared sense of identity and community.
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5 The term “redlining” comes from the color-coded maps produced by federal agencies. Anywhere Blacks lived, or lived nearby were colored red to indicate to appraisers that these neighborhoods were too risky to insure mortgages.
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73 There is no standard measurement for lynchings. Some studies, such as Acharya, Blackwell, and Sen (2016) and
Williams (2022), measure it as a rate, either as the number of lynchings per 100,000 total number of residents or Black residents. Others, such as Tolnay and Beck, measure the total count of lynchings. In Table C.1 in the appendix, I use different measurements of lynching to ensure that the findings are not sensitive to measurement choices.
74 The 17 states are Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi,
Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Texas, and West Virginia.
75 The sample consists of 14 states: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and West Virginia. Oklahoma is excluded since it was not a state in 1860.
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79 To ensure that results are not sensitive to the definition of the South, I expand and restrict the states considered part of the South. See Table D.1 in the appendix.
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87 In the appendix, I report results based on different measures of the main independent variable. Table C.1 shows that results do not change when lynchings are measured as a rate per 10,000 Black residents or as a count. I also report results from different definitions of the South and find that the results are still significant. See Table D.1.
88 Lee, “How America’s Vast Racial Wealth Gap Grew: By Plunder.”
89 ibid
90 ibid
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Inference.” A more detailed discussion on the matched sample is available in Appendix B.
94 I dichotomize the lynch rate variable to utilize more well-established propensity score techniques that are not as well suited to continuous treatments.
95 Ho et al., “Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Reducing Model Dependence in Parametric Causal
Inference.”
96 King and Zeng, “The Dangers of Extreme Counterfactuals.”
97 I report mean differences before and after matching in Figure B.1 in the appendix.
98 Huling, Greifer, and Chen, “Independence Weights for Causal Inference with Continuous Treatments.”
99 Balancing statistics and full model results, as well as a brief description of weighting, can be found in Appendix B.
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101 See Appendix E for a fuller discussion of the legacy of slavery, assessment of balance, and full results.
102 Charles Seguin and David Rigby, “National Crimes: A New National Data Set of Lynchings in the United States, 1883 to 1941,” Socius 5 (2019). In Appendix E, I include a brief discussion of key differences between both data sets.
103 I also generate a weighted sample to reduce the risk associated with dichotomizing a continuous treatment variable. Assessment of balance and results can be found in Appendix E.
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Adrian Arellano
Adrian Arellano is a Research Officer in the Department of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science and a Senior Researcher at Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).