Black–Blue or Bahamas? Explaining CDU, CSU, FDP and AfD Voter Attitudes Towards a Common Governmental Coalition Before the 2017 German Federal Election

ABSTRACT

Will the Alternative for Germany (AfD) soon be actively involved in forming Germany’s governments? The findings of this article illustrate that the established German parties would be well advised not to form a coalition involving the AfD as their own voters strongly oppose it. For the first time, coalition preferences for a so-called Black–Blue coalition (CDU, CSU and AfD) as well as a Bahamas coalition (CDU, CSU, FDP and AfD) are examined. Using regression models to explain the emergence of preferences for such coalitions, the findings indicate the following: (1) while an identification with the AfD leads to a higher desirability for such coalitions, the opposite is the case if an individual identifies with the CDU; (2) a positive impression of the AfD’s candidates leads to a stronger coalition preference, whereas the rejection of the CDU’s then chancellor-candidate Angela Merkel has no significant effect; and (3) opposing migration leads to a stronger preference for such coalitions.

Disclosure Statement

The data used for this article were collected within a project at the Chair Political Science II (Prof. Stefan Marschall) at the Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf. The author wishs to acknowledge the funding of the data collection by the Fritz Thyssen Foundation.

Notes

1 While the CSU is a party that only competes for votes in Bavaria, the CDU competes for votes in the whole country except for Bavaria. Since 1949, both parties have always formed a common party group in the Bundestag, Germany’s national parliament.

2 In German politics, parties are usually associated with specific colours. For the CDU and CSU, black became the externally attributed colour as priests used to wear black cassocks and both parties claim to represent Christian ideals, whereas the colour blue was chosen by the AfD on their own.

3 In addition to the CDU’s and CSU’s black and also AfD’s blue, the FDP is mainly identified through its yellow party colour. All three of these colours are part of the national flag of the Bahamas. The description as ‘Bahamas’ coalition was first used in the beginning of September 2013 (Welt Online 2013).

4 The possibility of such a feint was widely discussed in the media in the run-up to the election.

5 The author wishes to acknowledge the funding of the panel study by the Fritz Thyssen Foundation, Cologne.

6 Only in Wave 2 were coalition preferences still surveyed. However, since this wave was surveyed directly before the Bundestag election, it could be strongly influenced by short-term coalition signals and/or current polls. For this reason, the decision was made to use Wave 1 as the data basis.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Fritz Thyssen Stiftung.

Notes on contributors

L. Constantin Wurthmann

L. Constantin Wurthmann, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Department of Social Sciences, Chair of German Politics, Universitaetsstrasse 1, 40225 Duesseldorf