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Research Article

Taliban 2.0 and the BRI: A Text* Analysis of China’s Balancing Act

 

Abstract

This article examines China’s response to Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover in August 2021, focusing on the implications for the BRI. Employing R for text analysis, the article uncovers China’s nuanced sentiments—balancing optimism and caution amid the prevailing uncertainties surrounding the Taliban regime. China’s prioritization of security concerns in Afghanistan, addressing both Xinjiang’s stability and Afghanistan’s internal security situation, takes precedence over immediate economic interests, notably the BRI. This emphasis on security is evident in the extensive use of terms pertaining to China’s security concerns, reflecting a cautious approach towards Afghanistan’s evolving landscape.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. David Sacks, ‘Why Major Belt and Road Investments Are Not Coming to Afghanistan’, Council on Foreign Relations, 24 August 2021, at https://www.cfr.org/blog/why-major-belt-and-road-investments-are-not-coming-afghanistan (Accessed 13 April 2023).

2. ‘Taliban say they ‘desire’ to join China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects’, at https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/taliban-say-they-desire-to-join-china-pakistan-economic-corridor-projects-101630976453780.html (Accessed 12 March 2023).

3. Adnan Aamir, ‘Taliban rolls out red carpet to China’s Belt and Road Initiative’, Nikkei Asia, 12 September 2021, at https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Afghanistan-turmoil/Taliban-rolls-out-red-carpet-to-China-s-Belt-and-Road-Initiative (Accessed 21 January 2023).

4. ‘Afghanistan: China in Talks with Taliban to Expand CPEC to Kabul’, at https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/afghanistan-china-in-talks-with-taliban-to-expand-cpec-to-kabul-121082501257_1.html (Accessed 20 January 2023).

5. Andrew Watkins, ‘One Year Later: Taliban Reprise Repressive Rule, but Struggle to Build a State’, USIP Report, 17 August 2022.

6. Federico M. Giorgi, Carmine Ceraolo, and Daniele Mercatelli, ‘The R Language: An Engine for Bioinformatics and Data Science’, Life (Basel), 12(5), 2022.

7. Tjaša REDEK and Uroš GODNOV, Twitter as a Political Tool in EU Countries During the Economic Crisis: A Comparative Text-Mining Analysis’, Društvena istraživanja, 27 ;(4), 2018, pp. 691–711.

8. Soyoung Park, Sharon Strover Jaewon Choi, and MacKenzie Schnell, ‘Mind games: A temporal sentiment analysis of the political messages of the Internet Research Agency on Facebook and Twitter’, New Media & Society, 25(3), 2021, pp. 463–484.

9. Arafat Hossain, Md. Karimuzzaman, Md. Moyazzem Hossain, and Azizur Rahman, ‘Text Mining and Sentiment Analysis of Newspaper Headlines’, Information, 12(10), 2021, pp. 414.

10. Manish and Prashant Kaushik, ‘CPEC, Afghanistan and India’s Concerns’, India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, 75(2), 28 June 2019, pp. 253–261.

11. Arushi Kumar, ‘Why China’s One Belt, One Road Matters for Afghanistan’, Carnegie India, 12 May 2017, at https://carnegieindia.org/2017/05/12/why-china-s-one-belt-one-road-matters-for-afghanistan-pub-69974 (Accessed 10 February 2023).

12. Mariam Safi and Bismellah Alizada, ‘Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative’, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Report, 2018.

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15. Mariam Safi and Bismellah Alizada, no. 12.

16. Michael Clarke, “One Belt, One Road’ and China’s emerging Afghanistan dilemma”, Australian Journal of International Affairs, 70(5), 19 June 2016, pp. 563–579.

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19. Wang Yi: ‘To Discuss Extending CPEC to Afghanistan in a Proper Manner’, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, 2017 at https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/gjhdq_665435/2675_665437/2676_663356/2678_663360/201712/t20171228_509678.html (Accessed 17 March 2023).

20. ‘Railway Sector Assessment for Afghanistan’, CAREC, 2021 at https://www.carecprogram.org/uploads/2020-CAREC-Railway-Assessment_AFG_6th_2021–3-4_WEB.pdf (Accessed 20 April 2023).

21. Raghav Sharma, ‘Afghanistan: Discerning China’s Westward March’, Asian Affairs, 50(4), 08 August 2019, pp. 546–568.

22. Joanna Lillis, ‘Cargo leaves China for Afghanistan on new route via Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan’, eurasianet, 21 September 2022, at https://eurasianet.org/cargo-leaves-china-for-afghanistan-on-new-route-via-kyrgyzstan-uzbekistan

23. Mariam Safi and Bismellah Alizada, no. 12.

24. Ibid.

25. ‘China to Fund Afghanistan’s Motorway from Peshawar to Kabul’, at https://china.aiddata.org/projects/54094/ (Accessed 11 April 2023).

26. ‘Afghanistan: China in Talks with Taliban to Expand CPEC to Kabul’ at https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/afghanistan-china-in-talks-with-taliban-to-expand-cpec-to-kabul-121082501257_1.html (Accessed 14 April 2023).

27. Praveen Swami, ‘Xi Jinping, PM Modi $2.9 bn railway dream could trip on Afghan reality’, Business Standard, 29 November 2019 (Accessed 18 April 2023).

28. Vanda Felbab-Brown, ‘A BRI(dge) too far: The unfulfilled promise and limitations of China’s involvement in Afghanistan’, Brookings Report, June 2020.

29. Yun Sun, ‘A reluctant embrace: China’s new relationship with the Taliban’, War on the Rocks, 10 August 2021, at https://warontherocks.com/2021/08/a-reluctant-embrace-chinas-new-relationship-with-the-taliban/

30. Vanda Felbab-Brown, no. 28.

31. Manish and Prashant Kaushik, no. 10.

32. Vanda Felbab-Brown, no. 28.

33. ‘Afghanistan: China in Talks with Taliban to Expand CPEC to Kabul’, at https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/afghanistan-china-in-talks-with-taliban-to-expand-cpec-to-kabul-121082501257_1.html (Accessed 14 April 2023).

34. ‘Taliban say they ‘desire’ to join China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects’, at https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/taliban-say-they-desire-to-join-china-pakistan-economic-corridor-projects/articleshow/85994321.cms (Accessed 14 April 2023).

35. ‘‘Just give us our money’: Taliban push to unlock Afghan billions abroad’, at https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/just-give-us-our-money-taliban-push-unlock-afghan-billions-abroad-2021-10-29/ (Accessed 20 March 2023).

36. ‘What’s wrong with China’s construction work in Afghanistan, ask Taliban’, at https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/whats-wrong-with-chinas-construction-work-in-afghanistan-ask-taliban/articleshow/86224647.cms (Accessed January 2023).

37. Jiayi Zhou, Fei Su, and Jingdong Yuan, ‘Treading Lightly: China’s Footprint in a Taliban-led Afghanistan’, SIPRI, 2022.

38. ‘Chinese industrial park to be built in Kabul New City’, at https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1257334.shtml (Accessed 21 March 2023).

39. Jiayi Zhou, Fei Su, and Jingdong Yuan, no. 37.

40. ‘Land corridor via rail connects Afghanistan to China as 1st freight arrives’, at https://shorturl.at/lrwBP (Accessed 20 March 2023).

41. ‘Air corridor of pine nuts: a bridge of friendship between China and Afghanistan’, at http://af.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/sgxw/202201/t20220111_10480912.htm (Accessed 20 March 2023).

42. The Future of the Belt and Road Initiative in Afghanistan: Obstacles, Opportunities, and The Taliban’s Perspective‘, at https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2023/02/20/the-future-of-the-belt-and-road-initiative-in-afghanistan-obstacles-opportunities-and-the-talibans-perspective/ (Accessed 16 May 2023).

43. Claude Rakisits, Afghanistan: China’s Challenging Relationship with the Taliban’, Australian Institute of International Affairs, 15 September 2022, at https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/afghanistan-chinas-challenging-relationship-taliban/ (Accessed 21 February 2023).

44. Niklas Swanström and Julian Tucker. ‘China in Afghanistan—a New Force in the War in Afghanistan?’ in Adenrele Awotona (ed.), Rebuilding Afghanistan in Times of Crisis, Routledge, 2019.

45. Ghulam Ali, ‘China—Pakistan cooperation on Afghanistan: assessing key interests and implementing strategies’, The Pacific Review, 35(3), 04 May 2022, pp. 506–528.

46. Vanda Felbab-Brown, no. 28.

47. Xie Wenting and Bai Yunyi, ‘Exclusive: New Afghan government eyes exchanging visits with China: ETIM has no place in Afghanistan: Taliban spokesperson’, Global Times, 09 September 2021.

48. ‘Tracking Disorder during Taliban Rule in Afghanistan’, ACLED and APW Report, April 2022.

49. Ibid.

50. Stanly Johny and Ananth Krishnan, The Comrades and the Mullahs: China, Afghanistan and the New Asian Geopolitics, Harper Collins, 2022.

51. ‘Joint Statement of the 5th China-Afghanistan-Pakistan Foreign Ministers’ D ialogue’, 09May 2023, at https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjdt_665385/2649_665393/202305/t20230509_11073522.html

52. Dirk van der Kley, ‘China’s foreign policy in Afghanistan’, Lowy Institute for International Policy, October 2014, at https://www.lowyinstitute.org/sites/default/files/chinas-foreign-policy-in-afghanistan_0.pdf

53. Ibid.

54. ‘Joint Statement of the 5th China-Afghanistan-Pakistan Foreign Ministers’ Dialogue’ at https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202305/t20230509_11073522.html#:~:text=The%20three%20sides%20agreed%20to,regard%20to%20the%20relevant%20countries (Accessed 12 June 2023).

55. ‘Full Text: China’s National Defense in the New Era’ at https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/201907/24/content_WS5d3941ddc6d08408f502283d.html (Accessed 25 March 2023).

56. Kay Johnson, ‘China urges Afghans, Pakistan to form crisis-management mechanism’, Reuters, 25 June 2017 (Accessed 4 May 2023).

57. Mayuri Banerjee, ‘How China Views the World: An Analysis of the 20th CPC Congress Work Report’, MP-IDSA, 01 December 2022, at https://idsa.in/idsacomments/how-china-views-the-world-mbanerjee-011222

58. Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Matthew P. Funaiole, and Samantha Lu, ‘China’s 20th Party Congress Report: Doubling Down in the Face of External Threats’, CSIS, 19 October 2022.

Additional information

Funding

The authors received no financial support for the research, authorship and/or publication of this article.

Notes on contributors

Manish

Dr. Manish is Professor and Dean, School of International Studies, Central University of Gujarat, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India.

Aditya Mani

Dr. Aditya Mani holds a PhD in International Politics from Central University of Gujarat.

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