Climate change and hydrological response of Megech catchment, Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

Climate change scenarios of precipitation and temperature were divided into three time windows of 30 years each from 2011 to 2099. The new version of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (QSWAT v2.6.1) was used to simulate the hydrological response and it was first calibrated and validated using observed data as an input for assessing the hydrological responses. The results showed that the QSWAT calibration and validation reveals a good agreement (R²=0.77) during calibration and validation. Whereas nash and Sutcliffe simulation efficiency (NSE) was found to be 0.76 during calibration and 0.73 during validation. Based on changes of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, the monthly flow volume did not show systematic trends i.e. increases non-rainy months and decreases in the wet-months. Thus, the hydrology of Megech River is highly vulnerable to climate change which causes water stress for domestic use and environmental flow.

Keywords:

• Climate change
• hydrology
• rainfall
• downscaling
• global circulation
• models
• Blue Nile river basin

Authors’ contributions

SA has made substantial contributions in conception design, acquisition of data, interpretation of results and leading the overall activities of the research. He has given also the final approval of the version to be published. AT and HL contributed in designing, data collection and analysis of this research. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Acknowledgements

This study would never be completed without the contribution of many people to whom we would like to express our gratitude. The administrative kebele’s development agents, district agricultural officials, local youths, in each of the sampling sites were indispensable for the successful completion of the field work and ground truth.

Availability of data and materials

The dataset supporting the conclusions of this article is included within the article.

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Consent for publication

All authors read the manuscript and agree to publication.

Disclosure statement

No potential competing interest was reported by the authors.

Ethics approval and consent to participate

The authors hereby declare that, this manuscript is not published or considered for publication elsewhere.

Additional information

Funding

Funded by Bahir Dar University and Abay Basin Authority.