The Use of Predictive Modeling to Compare Prehospital eCPR Strategies

Abstract

The duration of low flow prior to initiation of extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (eCPR) appears to influence survival. Strategies to reduce the low-flow interval for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest have been focused on expediting patient transport to the hospital or initiating extracorporeal support in the prehospital setting. To date, a direct comparison of low-flow interval between these strategies has not been made. To attempt this comparison, a model was created to predict low-flow intervals for each strategy at different locations across the city of Albuquerque, New Mexico. The data, specific to Albuquerque, suggest that a prehospital cannulation strategy consistently outperforms an expedited transport strategy, with an estimated difference in low-flow interval of 34.3 to 37.2 minutes, depending on location. There is no location within the city in which an expedited transport strategy results in a shorter low-flow interval than prehospital cannulation. It would be rare to successfully initiate eCPR by either strategy in fewer than 30 minutes from the time of patient collapse. Using a prehospital cannulation strategy, the entire coverage area could be eligible for eCPR within 60 minutes of patient collapse. The use of predictive modeling can be a low-cost solution to assist with strategic deployment of prehospital resources and may have potential for real-time decision support for prehospital clinicians.

Data Availability

The Tableau model used in this article can be viewed in real time here: https://public.tableau.com/views/UNMPrehospitaleCPRPredictiveModel/Dashboard4?:language=en-US&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link.

Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge the partnership between Albuquerque Fire-Rescue and the University of New Mexico Hospital, which is integral to the operationalization of the prehospital eCPR program in Albuquerque.

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.