Threshold effects of inflation on the FDI – growth nexus: evidence from inflation-targeting countries in sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the threshold effect of inflation on the foreign direct investment (FDI) – economic growth nexus in sub-Saharan Africa using panel samples of countries that have adopted an inflation-targeting regime. The study sourced data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators over a period of 1982–2020 and adopted the fixed-effect panel threshold model approach for its analysis. The findings reveal two separate thresholds of inflation in the FDI – growth nexus. The growth-enhancing effect of FDI is largely realized when inflation is below the optimal threshold level of 7.26%. Beyond the second threshold level of 16.49%, the beneficial effect of FDI on growth is seen to diminish in terms of effect-size. This study provides new insights into the growth effect of FDI and the role of inflation levels in this nexus. The thresholds of inflation and the attendant size-effect of FDI on growth can be benchmarks for Africa and other developing and emerging economies in assessing their situations. As African monetary authorities choose which inflation targets to set for their monetary policies, the findings raise significant implications for them.

Keywords:

• Economic growth
• FDI
• fixed-effect panel threshold regression
• inflation
• inflation-targeting countries
• Sub-Saharan Africa

JEL CODE:

• C24
• C33
• E31
• F21
• F43
• O40

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

Data for the study was obtained from publicly available sources and can be made available upon request.