Estimated global public health and economic impact of COVID-19 vaccines in the pre-omicron era using real-world empirical data

ABSTRACT

Background

Limited data are available describing the global impact of COVID-19 vaccines. This study estimated the global public health and economic impact of COVID-19 vaccines before the emergence of the Omicron variant.

Methods

A static model covering 215 countries/territories compared the direct effects of COVID-19 vaccination to no vaccination during 13 December 2020–30 September 2021. After adjusting for underreporting of cases and deaths, base case analyses estimated total cases and deaths averted, and direct outpatient and productivity costs saved through averted health outcomes. Sensitivity analyses applied alternative model assumptions.

Results

COVID-19 vaccines prevented an estimated median (IQR) of 151.7 (133.7–226.1) million cases and 620.5 (411.1–698.1) thousand deaths globally through September 2021. In sensitivity analysis applying an alternative underreporting assumption, median deaths averted were 2.1 million. Estimated direct outpatient cost savings were $21.2 ($18.9–30.9) billion and indirect savings of avoided productivity loss were $135.1 ($121.1–206.4) billion, yielding a total cost savings of $155 billion globally through averted infections.

Conclusions

Using a conservative modeling approach that considered direct effects only, we estimated that COVID-19 vaccines have averted millions of infections and deaths, generating billions of cost savings worldwide, which underscore the continued importance of vaccination in public health response to COVID-19.

KEYWORDS:

• COVID-19 vaccines
• economic modeling
• global public health impact
• SARS-CoV-2
• societal perspective

Author contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception, design, data acquisition, analysis, interpretation, and drafting and revising the manuscript.

All named authors meet the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE) criteria for authorship for this article, take responsibility for the integrity of the work as a whole, and have given their approval for this version to be published.

Availability of data and materials

Data generated or analyzed during this study are available upon request.

Declaration of interests

J Yang, M Di Fusco, TL Wiemken, MH Kyaw, JM. McLaughlin, and JL Nguyen are employees of Pfizer Inc. and may hold stock or stock options. S Vaghela is an employee of HealthEcon Consulting Inc. and an external consultant for Pfizer who has received consulting fees from Pfizer in connection with the development of this study and manuscript. B Yarnoff and S De Boisvilliers are employees of Evidera, which was a paid consultant to Pfizer in connection with the development of this study. The authors have no other relevant affiliations or financial involvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or material discussed in the manuscript apart from those disclosed.

Reviewer disclosures

Peer reviewers on this manuscript have received an honorarium for their review work.

Ethical approval

These analyses used data from previously conducted studies and did not include data from any new studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors, hence ethical approval was not required.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/14760584.2023.2157817

Additional information

Funding

This study was funded by Pfizer Inc.