Public health impact of UK COVID-19 booster vaccination programs during Omicron predominance

ABSTRACT

Background

We aimed to estimate the public health impact of booster vaccination against COVID-19 in the UK during an Omicron-predominant period.

Research design and methods

A dynamic transmission model was developed to compare public health outcomes for actual and alternative UK booster vaccination programs. Input sources were publicly available data and targeted literature reviews. Base case analyses estimated outcomes from the UK’s Autumn–Winter 2021–2022 booster program during January–March 2022, an Omicron-predominant period. Scenario analyses projected outcomes from Spring and in Autumn 2022 booster programs over an extended time horizon from April 2022–April 2023, assuming continued Omicron predominance, and explored hypothetical program alternatives with modified eligibility criteria and/or increased uptake.

Results

Estimates predicted that the Autumn–Winter 2021–2022 booster program averted approximately 12.8 million cases, 1.1 million hospitalizations, and 290,000 deaths. Scenario analyses suggested that Spring and Autumn 2022 programs would avert approximately 6.2 million cases, 716,000 hospitalizations, and 125,000 deaths; alternatives extending eligibility or targeting risk groups would improve these benefits, and increasing uptake would further strengthen impact.

Conclusions

Boosters were estimated to provide substantial benefit to UK public health during Omicron predominance. Benefits of booster vaccination could be maximized by extending eligibility and increasing uptake.

KEYWORDS:

• COVID-19
• COVID-19 booster vaccination
• dynamic transmission model
• omicron variant (B.1.1.529)
• public health impact
• SARS-CoV-2

Acknowledgments

Input into early model development was provided by Julie Roiz (Evidera) and was funded by Pfizer, Inc. Medical writing was provided by Jacqueline Janowich Wasserott, PhD and Jonathan Pitt, PhD (Evidera) and was funded by Pfizer, Inc.

Declaration of interest

D Mendes, JL Nguyen, L Hamson, M Di Fusco, C Czudek, and J Yang are employees of Pfizer and may own Pfizer stock(s). R Chapman, E Aruffo, and P Gal are employees of Evidera, which received financial support from Pfizer, Inc. in connection with the study and the development of this manuscript. The authors have no other relevant affiliations or financial involvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or material discussed in the manuscript apart from those disclosed.

Reviewer disclosures

Reviewers on this manuscript have received an honorarium for their review work. Peer reviewers on this manuscript have no relevant financial or other relationships to disclose.

Data availability statement

Data generated or analyzed during this study are available upon request.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/14760584.2023.2158816

Additional information

Funding

This study was sponsored by Pfizer, Inc.