Modeling the potential public health impact of different vaccination strategies with an omicron-adapted bivalent vaccine in Malaysia

ABSTRACT

Background

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case numbers have increased following the emergence of the Omicron variant. This study estimated the impact of introducing and increasing the coverage of an Omicron-adapted bivalent booster vaccine in Malaysia.

Research Design and Methods

A combined cohort Markov decision tree model was used to compare booster vaccination with an Omicron-adapted bivalent COVID-19 vaccine versus no booster vaccination in Malaysia. The model utilized age-specific data from January 2021 to March 2022 derived from published sources. The outcomes of interest included case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths, medical costs, and productivity losses. The population was stratified into high-risk and standard-risk subpopulations, and the study evaluated the benefits of increased coverage in different age and risk groups.

Results

Vaccinating only high-risk individuals and those aged ≥ 65 years was estimated to avert 274,313 cases, 33229 hospitalizations, 2,434 deaths, Malaysian ringgit (MYR) 576 million in direct medical costs, and MYR 579 million in indirect costs. Expanding vaccination coverage in the standard-risk population to 75% was estimated to avert more deaths (31%), hospitalizations (155%), infections (206%), direct costs (206%), and indirect costs (281%).

Conclusions

These findings support broader population Omicron-adapted bivalent booster vaccination in Malaysia with potential for significant health and economic gains.

KEYWORDS:

• Bivalent booster vaccine
• COVID-19
• Malaysia
• Omicron
• Omicron-adapted vaccine
• SARS-CoV-2

Declaration of interest

KT, JS, MHK, JY, and CM are employees of Pfizer and may hold stock or stock options of Pfizer. BY is an employee of Evidera, which received financial support from Pfizer in connection with the study and the development of this manuscript. Medical writing and editorial support was provided by Dr. Ruth Sharf-Williams at Evidera and was funded by Pfizer.

Reviewer disclosures

Peer reviewers on this manuscript have received honoraria for their review work. Peer reviewers on this manuscript have no other relevant financial or other relationships to disclose.

Author contributions

All named authors meet the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE) criteria for authorship for this article. All authors contributed to study conception and design, data acquisition, analysis, and interpretation, drafting and revising of the manuscript.

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Dr. Sharlini T Surendran, Country Medical Director, Pfizer Malaysia for her support. Assistance with model conceptualization and development and input collection was provided by Josie Dodd, Solene De Boisvilliers, and Paul Lozowicki (Evidera). Medical writing was provided by Dr. Ruth Sharf-Williams (Evidera) and was funded by Pfizer, Inc.

Supplemental data

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/14760584.2023.2245465

Additional information

Funding

This study was funded by Pfizer.