Exploring temperature and precipitation changes under future climate change scenarios for black and white rhinoceros populations in Southern Africa

ABSTRACT

Climate change is a potential human-induced threat to rhino populations and their habitat. Information on the effects of climate change on rhinoceros species can help manage and develop conservation plans to adapt to these changes. In this study, two climate change scenarios were used to predict temperature and precipitation changes in national parks in southern Africa and the effect those changes would have on black (Diceros bicornis) and white (Ceratotherium simum) rhinoceros populations. The study used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations of 650 and 1370 ppm, for the years 2055 and 2085 to explore the temperature and precipitation changes. All spatial information was processed using Geographic Information Systems and statistical analysis. Results show the changing climate will have significant negative impacts on the probability of occurrence of both species. Temperature changes will affect these probabilities more than precipitation changes. All study parks will have zero probability of occurrence for the species throughout their ranges should conditions reach those represented by the RCP 8.5 scenario late in the century. Conservation activities for the rhinoceros should take into consideration the potential for temperature and precipitation changes modelled in this study.

KEYWORDS:

• Rhinos
• climate change
• macroecological analysis
• conservation
• restoration

Acknowledgements

We thank the USA Fulbright Program for providing HM the scholarship to pursue this research. Partial support is provided to TR by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, CSREES, US Department of Agriculture, Massachusetts Agricultural Experiment Station (MAES), under Projects MAS00036, MAS00035, and MAS00045. Thanks to Dr. Todd Fuller and Dr. Steve DeStefano for their advice and support in the research.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/14888386.2023.2291133

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Fulbright Association [Hlelowenkhosi S. Mamba]; National Institute of Food and Agriculture [MAS00036, MAS00035, and MAS00045].

Notes on contributors

Hlelowenkhosi S. Mamba

Hlelowenkhosi S. Mamba is a science teacher in the Department of Science at the Free Evangelical Assemblies High School in Eswatini. She has a bachelor’s degree in geography, environmental science and planning, and biology from the University of Eswatini and a master’s degree in environmental conservation from the University of Massachusetts, USA.

Timothy O. Randhir

Timothy O. Randhir is a Full Professor of watershed management, ecohydrology, complex systems, water resources, water quality, ecological economics, and sustainability. He works at the Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts, USA, and is a Director of the Massachusetts Water Resources Research Center. He received his PhD from Purdue University in 1995 and did post-doctoral work at Purdue before joining the University of Massachusetts as faculty. He has a bachelor’s degree in agricultural sciences from Annamalai University in India and a master’s in agricultural economics from Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, India.