The determinants of CO2 emissions in Brazil: The application of the STIRPAT model

ABSTRACT

CO₂ is one of the crucial concerns of the global economy due to its negative environmental impact. Based on the limitations of extant studies, this research employs the STIRPAT framework to investigate the asymmetric effect of urbanization (URB), gross domestic product (GDP), and energy intensity (EINT) on carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂) in Brazil from 1980–2022 using innovative econometric techniques such as Non – linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS). The NARDL findings are as follows: (i) The NARDL bounds test confirmed the existence of long – term association; (ii) In the long – term, a positive change in URB reduces CO₂ by 8.6%, while an adverse change in URB does not affect CO₂. In the case of GDP, a positive change raises CO₂ by 1.73%, whereas a negative change reduces CO₂ by 2.94%. For EINT, a positive change induces CO₂ by 2.12%, while a negative change decreases CO₂ by 3.82%; (iii) In the short – term, an adverse change in URB spurs CO₂ by 0.39%. For GDP, a positive change raises CO₂ by 1.73%, whereas a negative change reduces CO₂ by 2.94%. Lastly, a positive EINT change drives CO₂ by 2.12%; (iv) The DOLS findings confirm the NARDL results. The policy implications are discussed.

KEYWORDS:

• CO₂
• urbanization
• GDP
• STIRPAT
• NARDL
• Brazil

Abbreviations

BRICS	=	Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa
DOLS	=	Dynamic Ordinary Least Square
EINT	=	Energy Intensity
EU	=	European Union
FMOLS	=	Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square
MENA	=	Middle Eastern and North Africa
NARDL	=	Non – linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag
URB	=	Urbanization
VECM	=	Vector Error Correction Method

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Correction Statement

This article has been corrected with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.

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Notes on contributors

Oluwatoyin Abidemi Somoye

Oluwatoyin Abidemi Somoye is an Assistant Professor in Economics at Near East University, Nicosia, Cyprus. His research interests are in macroeconomics, energy economics, environmental economics, and developmental economics.

Huseyin Ozdeser

Huseyin Ozdeser is a Professor in Economics and the Chairman of the Department of Economics, Near East University, Nicosia, Cyprus. His research interests are in macroeconomics, political economy, energy economics, and European monetary policies.

Mehdi Seraj

Mehdi Seraj is an Associate Professor in Economics at Near East University, Nicosia, Cyprus. His research interests are in macroeconomics, exchange rates, economic development, and energy economics.

Fatma Turuc

Fatma Turuc is a Ph.D. Candidate and an instructor at Near East University, Nicosia, Cyprus. Her research interests are in macroeconomics, gender economics, and energy economics.