https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9555-4214
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ABSTRACT
Solar irradiance and temperature are two primary factors that affect the energy generation efficiency of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, meaning that climate change may significantly impact the production of solar energy in the future. In this study, a two-way sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the energy generation potential under future climate change conditions, and conditions of shadow covering are also considered. The simulation results indicate that the impact of solar irradiance causes the most variation in energy generation, and that shadow covering has a weak impact on the output. In the one-way sensitivity analysis, solar irradiance makes a ± 18% difference in energy generation, whereas shadow covering represents about ± 2%. In the future trend of climate change in the world and Taiwan, the energy generation potential can decrease up to 21% and increase 8%, respectively, mainly corresponded by solar irradiance. We suggest that compared with the issue of temperature, the efficiency of solar irradiance usage is more important, especially in view of the global trend toward solar irradiance loss. Taiwan also suffers the issue, but the different trend of climate change impact may make the challenge different.
Abbreviation
| ASI | = | Annual solar irradiance |
| DNI | = | Direct normal irradiance |
| DHI | = | Diffuse horizontal irradiance |
| GHI | = | Global horizontal irradiance |
| EHI | = | Energy-heavy industry |
| LOD | = | Level of detail |
| NOCT | = | Nominal operating cell temperature |
| NLSC | = | National Land Surveying and Mapping Center |
| PV | = | Photovoltaic |
| TMY | = | Typical meteorological year |
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
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Notes on contributors
Jen-Yu Han
Jen-Yu Han is the professor in the department of civil engineering at National Taiwan University, Taiwan. He received his B.S. and M.S. degree from the department of civil engineering, National Taiwan University, Taiwan and received his Ph.D. degree from School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University. His research interests are applied satellite geodesy, deformation analysis, time-variant terrestrial reference frame, and integrated analysis of hybrid spatial information.
Sin-Yi Li
Sin-Yi Li is currently a Ph.D. student in the department of civil and industrial engineering at Uppsala University. He received his B.S. and M.S. degree from the department of urban planning, National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan and Msc planning from the University of Manchester. His research interest are urban renewable energy and building life-cycle energy analysis.