Individual-Based Model use in Marine Policy

ABSTRACT

Individual-based models (IBMs) are increasingly used in marine conservation research, making this is an ideal time to assess IBM use in marine policy. IBMs can contribute important information to marine management and policy questions, as they offer complex methods of understanding ecosystems and animal behaviour, by allowing for heterogeneity in both individuals and environments. A review of 108 international peer-review publications utilizing marine IBMs was conducted using Web of Science (WoS). It was determined that 55% of the WoS articles claimed that the IBMs were relevant or important to marine conservation policy or management. A relevant English-language policy document was located for 83% of the IBMs, but only 32% were cited, while 85% of the same policy documents cited a different, non-IBM, modelling method. A separate survey of 175 policy documents from the Government of Canada was conducted. Of the 60 that contained citations, zero documents cited an IBM, while 75% cited a different modelling method. Of 407 webpages reviewed from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the New Zealand Department of Conservation, and the UK Government website, only 4% referenced IBMs. This research demonstrates that, despite claims of usefulness by researchers, IBMs are not used to inform policy, while other model methods are commonly cited. Modellers should not assume that their model will inherently be useful for policy and should instead ensure that they are: 1) addressing a policy need; and 2) making the information accessible to policymakers by crafting a communication plan and/or joining a relevant boundary organization.

KEYWORDS:

• Marine
• policy
• individual-based Model
• simulation
• conservation

Highlights

1. A large percentage of international peer-reviewed scientific research that used individual-based models (IBMs) for marine-focused research claimed that the results of the IBMs were relevant or important to marine conservation policy or management. However, the IBMs were rarely cited in policy documents on the same marine topic.

2. IBMs were cited in international marine policy documents at a significantly lower rate than other model methods.

3. Researchers who use IBMs should take proactive steps to communicate their research to relevant policymakers.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/1943815X.2023.2271550

Notes

1. Also referred to as agent-based modelling (ABM). The term IBM is most commonly used in ecological research, while ABM is more common in social science literature. There is no fundamental difference between the two. In this paper, IBM will be used consistently throughout for clarity.

2. Key words identified in the description of the document.

3. No policy document used “simulate” or “simulation” in place of the term “modelling” but 19 (36%) used both terms interchangeably or in combination (i.e. “model simulation”).

4. No policy document used “simulate” or “simulation” in place of the term “modelling” but 11 (18%) used both terms interchangeably or in combination (i.e. “model simulation”).

5. It should be noted that IBMs can require a high amount of data to parametrize, which may be a potential explanation for their limited use, despite public pressure within the last decade.