Lightning fatalities and its correlation with social variables in Northwestern Mexico

Abstract

This research analyzes lightning activity in Northwestern Mexico from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2019, and seeks to correlate it with cloud-to-ground (CG) stroke attributed fatalities and social variables. The main purpose of this paper is to define the most relevant social variables in CG stroke fatalities in order to improve our current understanding of lightning hazard. The study’s contributors anticipate that these findings will provide insights to help mitigate the loss of human life in this region. The methodology employed in this study focuses on a geospatial analysis of the CG stroke density per square kilometer related to the 50 deaths that occurred in Northwestern Mexico within the five-year time frame studied. In addition, a social-vulnerability indicator is defined by data provided by governmental agencies to assess risk based on socio-economic conditions, including level of education, access to healthcare services, access to basic human services, housing quality and space, household assets, and poverty level of the population. The social-vulnerability indicator combines available data of the general population in comparison to the occurrence of CG stroke fatalities and can contribute to an improved risk assessment of the CG stroke hazard. This geospatial analysis has found that CG stroke fatalities do not necessarily coincide with higher CG stroke density; however, other variables correlate to CG stroke fatalities statistics, including social vulnerability, population type, seasonality (time of the year), grouped age and occupation. This conclusion was determined by applying a principal component analysis (PCA) technique to the definition of the variables most closely related to CG stroke fatalities for the studied time period and region. In addition, physiographic elements were considered to explore their possible influence on the highest CG stroke density and the occurrence of CG stroke fatalities.

Keywords:

• Lightning
• hazard
• Geospatial analysis
• vulnerability
• CG stroke fatalities

Acknowledgments

To Vaisala Inc. for providing the lightning dataset (GLD360), essential information for the development of this research. About receiving GLD360 data for academic research, please contact Vaisala Inc. for information. To Ron Holle who showed his interest in this research, and he was the first contact with Vaisala Inc. To Chris Vagasky for his incredible support, also from Vaisala Inc. To José Ismael Minjárez Sosa and Adrián Emilio Vázquez Icedo for their technical support in the design of this research. The first author thanks the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACyT) of Mexico for granting a scholarship to accomplish this study. The author also would like to thanks the Universidad de Sonora (UNISON) for granting an institutional scholarship agreement for postgraduate studies and research stays.

Disclosure statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript; or in the decision to publish the results.

Data availability statement

Lightning occurrence data used in this research were obtained from Vaisala Inc. and can be made available upon request to Vaisala. Lighting fatality data used in this research were obtained from the Dirección General de Información en Salud of Mexico (DGIS et al. 2020), through the Secretaría de Salud (SSA) and compiled with data from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática (INEGI) and can be made available upon request to DGIS. Regarding lightning hazard vulnerability, the layer files (CENAPRED 2011; CONABIO 2010, 2014) can be downloaded from the official Geoinformation Website 2022, from the National Biodiversity Information System (SNIB), http://www.conabio.gob.mx/informacion/gis/.

Data deposition

The authors report the dataset resulting from this research will be available in a recognized data repository with DOI in the next months; the authors commit to report when the process is completed.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACyT) of Mexico under Grant 177248; Universidad de Sonora under Beca para Estudios Doctorales para Profesores(as) de Asignatura con Opción a Plaza de Profesor(a) Investigador(a) Indeterminado(a) de Tiempo Completo 2020-2/2021.