Estimation of earthquake safety escape time and casualties in Chinese masonry buildings

Abstract

To predict the number of casualties in dwellings when a strong earthquake occurs, this paper investigated the seismic performances of masonry buildings located in a rural town where earthquake occurs frequently with high earthquakes. The incremental dynamic analysis method was employed to estimate the available escape time and the collapse probability of building under those selected ground motions with a series of peak accelerations. Meanwhile, the required safety escape time of the building was obtained through evacuation simulation analysis. According to the safe evacuation criteria, the probability of casualties in terms of earthquake intensity measure was predicted. The results show that available escape time decreases with the increase of peak ground acceleration level. While the required safety escape time increases with the number of building layers subjoining; residents on the upper floors have a lower probability of escape. The present work implied that the residents on the higher floors must seek temporary security zones in their rooms to reduce casualties.

Keywords:

• Probability of escape
• incremental dynamic analysis
• seismic vulnerability
• safety escape time
• the randomness of ground motions

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This work was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No: 11461078, 11862024, 52168038).