Testing feasibility of using a hidden Markov model on predicting human mobility based on GPS tracking data

Abstract

Human mobility behaviour is far from random and can be predictable. Predicting human mobility behaviour has the potential to improve location selection for facilities, transportation services, urban planning, and can be beneficial in providing more efficient sustainable urban development strategies. However, it is difficult to model urban mobility patterns since incentives for mobility is complex, and influenced by several factors, such as dynamic population, weather conditions. Thus, this paper proposes a prediction-oriented algorithm under the framework of a Hidden Markov Model to predict next-location and time-of-arrival of human mobility. A comprehensive evaluation of these two schemes for the representation of latent and observable variables is discussed. In conclusion, the paper provides a valuable contribution to the field of mobility behaviour prediction by proposing a novel algorithm. The evaluation shows that the proposed algorithm is stable and consistent in predicting the next location of users based on their past trajectories.

KEYWORDS:

• Human behaviour
• Markov chain
• GPS movement data
• sustainable urban development
• spatial–temporal prediction

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).