COVID-19 restrictions, pub closures, and crime in Oslo, Norway

ABSTRACT

Alcohol consumption and crime are closely linked and there is often more crime near pubs and bars. Few studies have considered the impact of restricting access to pubs or bars on crime, and the present study aims to provide more insight into this by using the restrictions to combat the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment. In Oslo, Norway, alcohol serving was banned twice during 2020, and at other times during the year, restrictions were placed on how late it could be served. In the present paper, these restrictions are analysed, alongside more general COVID-19 restrictions, to assess their association with crime. To identify these, we employ negative binomial regression models of daily crime counts for nine types of crime adjusted for the day of the week, the week of the year, and the year itself. This is in addition to the presence, or absence, of alcohol-related restrictions and more general COVID-19 restrictions. The findings suggest that both, general restrictions and bans on serving alcohol, reduced crime, although not universally across all crime types and times of the day. When pubs are ordered not to sell alcohol after midnight there appears to be an unexpected increase in crime.

KEYWORDS:

• COVID-19
• alcohol
• crime
• nightlife

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. The cited figure is by June 2022, taken from the dashboard created by Don, Du & Gardner here: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6.

2. The references for these changes in crime are to media reports however and should be treated with caution.

3. See the pre-registration here: https://osf.io/zt4rv.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Norges Forskningsråd (Norwegian research council), grant number 301881