Lifestyle Influence on Mild Cognitive Impairment Progression: A Decision Tree Prediction Model Study

Abstract

Purpose

This study assessed the influences of different lifestyle on mild cognitive impairment (MCI) progression and established a decision tree prediction model to analyse their predictive significance on MCI progression incidence.

Patients and Methods

From October 2015 to February 2020,330 patients with MCI were recruited, and demographic and lifestyle information collected. They were followed up for 19.04 ± 10.227 months. Cognitive function was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination Scale every 6 months, and they were divided into MCI stable group and MCI progression group.

Results

The Kaplan Meier survival analysis showed an overall cohort survival rate of 33.2%; the annual conversion rate of MCI progression was 20%. Physical exercise, social engagement, high-fat diet, age, napping, and tea drinking were decision tree prediction model nodes. Hobbies were the most important factor for predicting MCI progression. The MCI progression probability rates were: with hobbies 26.829% (44 cases), without hobbies 57.831% (96 cases); for those withot hobbies, with physical exercise 43.077% (28 cases) without physical exercise 72.340% (68 cases); for those without hobbies with physical exercise and social engagement 20.000% (4 cases), without social engagement 53.333% (24 cases); for those without hobbies, physical exercises and social engagement and with nap habits 48.485% (16 cases), without nap habits 66.667% (8 cases). The decision tree prediction model AUC for predicting the MCI progression receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.737 (95% confidence interval: 0.685–0.785) (75.71% sensitivity, 71.75% specificity, P < 0.001.

Conclusion

Hobbies, physical exercise, social engagement, napping, and drinking tea can help prevent MCI progression, while a high-fat diet may exacerbate MCI progression. In this study the rule with the lowest MCI progress probability for those who had hobbies, high-fat diet, and social engagement. And the decision tree model had good prediction efficiency.

Keywords:

• lifestyle
• mild cognitive impairment progression
• survival analysis
• decision tree prediction model

Statement of Ethics

This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Qingdao University (approval number: QYFYWZLL25697), and complied with the Declaration of Helsinki.

Acknowledgments

The study was supported by the following organizations: Jinniu District Medical Association Scientific Research Project, Key Project (jnky2021-14); Jinniu District Medical Association Scientific Research Project, Nursery Project (jnky2021-15); the Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu University Project (Y2021044); Qingdao Social Science Planning Project (qdskl2201376); and Shandong Geriatric Science and Technology Plan (lkjg2021z013).

Disclosure

The authors have no conflicts of interest regarding the content of this article. An unauthorized version of the Chinese MMSE was used by the study team without permission. The MMSE is a copyrighted instrument and may not be used or reproduced in whole or in part, in any form or language, or by any means without written permission of PAR (www.parinc.com).