Factors associated with long-term mortality in acute pancreatitis

Abstract

Background and aims. Knowledge of the long-term prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP) is limited. The aims were to investigate: (1) prognostic factors associated with long-term mortality in patients with AP; (2) whether or not the level of serum (S-)amylase at admission had an impact on the prognosis; (3) causes of death in these patients. Methods. During 1977–1982, patients who were admitted to the five main hospitals in Copenhagen with a diagnosis of AP or chronic pancreatitis (CP) were included in a prospective cohort, the Copenhagen Pancreatitis Study (CPS); in 2008, they were followed up by linkage to the Danish Registries. The analyzed subcohort consisted of 352 patients with probable AP (n = 54) or definite AP (n = 298). Results. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that significant factors associated with mortality were age, alcohol, and diabetes, whereas female gender, co-living and employment were associated with better survival. The S-amylase level had no impact on mortality. The most frequent causes of death were cardiovascular diseases, digestive diseases, and malignancies. Conclusions. Age, alcohol and diabetes had a significant impact on survival whereas the S-amylase level did not.

Key Words::

• Acute pancreatitis
• cohort
• long-term prognosis
• prognostic factors
• prospective

Funding: Hvidovre Hospitals Research Foundation, Solvay Pharma, “The YKL-40 Foundation”, and “The Foundation of 1870”.

Declaration of interest: The authors report no conflicts of interest. The authors alone are responsible for the content and writing of the paper.