Seasonality in the Incidence of Cervical Carcinoma in Teenagers and Young Adults in Northern England, 1968–2005

Abstract

Infection with human papillomavirus is an established risk factor for cervical carcinoma. However, the role of other environmental factors is less well established. To further investigate whether other agents may be involved, the authors have analyzed seasonal variation in cervical cancer with respect to month of birth and separately month of diagnosis. All 85 cases diagnosed in 15–24-yr-olds during the period 1968–2005 were extracted from the specialist population-based Northern Region Young Persons' Malignant Disease Registry. The chi-square heterogeneity test was used to assess overall nonuniform variation in month of birth and separately month of diagnosis. Poisson regression analysis was used to fit sinusoidal (harmonic) models to the data using month of birth and month of diagnosis in separate models. Based on month of birth, there was statistically significant heterogeneity (p = .03) and a significant sinusoidal pattern, with an incidence peak involving births in the autumn months (p = .03). Based on month of diagnosis, there was marginally significant heterogeneity (p = .06). The evidence of seasonal variation around time of birth for cervical carcinoma is highly novel and suggests possible early etiological involvement of environmental factors. (Author correspondence: [email protected])

Keywords:

• Epidemiology
• Biostatistics
• Seasonality
• Birth
• Teenagers
• Young adults
• Cervical carcinoma

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We thank the North of England Children's Cancer Research Fund for providing financial support. The Northern Region Young Persons' Malignant Disease Registry (NRYPMDR) is funded by the Newcastle Hospitals NHS Trust.

Declaration of Interest: The authors report no conflicts of interest. The authors alone are responsible for the content and writing of the paper.