Predicting Multiple DUI Offenders Using the Florida DRI

Abstract

Multiple DUI recidivists pose the greatest threat to the safety of American roadways. A Poisson regression analysis was used to predict the number of self-reported lifetime DUI arrests using a large sample of those arrested for DUI in the state of Florida between January 1, 2007, and September 30, 2008 (N = 25,506). Each individual arrested in the state of Florida for DUI is mandated to complete the driver risk inventory (DRI). The behavioral scales included in the DRI proved important predictors of a number of lifetime DUI arrests. The implications and limitations of the findings are noted. Funding of the study is provided by Behavioral Data Systems, Ltd.

RÉSUMÉ

Prédire multiples DUI délinquants utilisation de la DRI Floride

Multiples récidivistes DUI représentent la plus grande menace pour la sécurité des routes américaines. Une analyse de régression de Poisson a été utilisé pour prédire le nombre de travailleurs autonomes auraient été interpellées à vie DUI l'aide d'un large échantillon de personnes arrêtées pour DUI à l'état de la Floride, entre le 1er Janvier 2007 et le 30 Septembre, 2008 (N = 25,506). Chaque individu arrêté dans l'État de Floride pour DUI a pour mandat de compléter les conducteurs à risque Inventory (DRI). Les échelles comportementales inclus dans l'IRC démontré d'importants prédicteurs du nombre d'arrestations à vie DUI. Les implications et les limites des résultats obtenus sont notés. Financement de l'étude fournie par Behavioral Data Systems, Ltd.

RESUMEN

La predicción de múltiples ofensores de DUI uso de la DRI de la Florida

Múltiples reincidentes DUI representan la mayor amenaza para la seguridad de las carreteras estadounidenses. Un análisis de regresión de Poisson se utilizó para predecir el número de auto-comunicada arrestos por DUI vida utilizando una amplia muestra de los arrestados por DUI en el estado de Florida entre el 1 de enero 2007 y 30 de septiembre de 2008 (N = 25,506). Cada individuo detenido en el estado de Florida por DUI tiene el mandato de completar el controlador de riesgos de inventario (DRI). Las escalas de conducta incluido en el IRD demostrado importantes factores predictivos del número de detenciones de por vida de DUI. Las implicaciones y limitaciones de los resultados se observan. Financiación del estudio presentado por comportamiento Data Systems, SA de CV.

Keywords :

• driver risk inventory
• Florida
• multiple DUI recidivism
• Poisson regression
• risk measurement

THE AUTHORS

Nicholas Bishop, M.A. Sociology, is a graduate student focusing on medical sociology and social epidemiology in the Sociology program within the School of Social and Family Dynamics at Arizona State University. His current research interests include racial and socioeconomic variation in health and health behaviors across the life course and the investigation of social capital as related to adolescent academic achievement.

Notes

1 The reader is reminded that the concept of “at risk” is often noted in the literature without an adequate delineations of its dimensions (linear, nonlinear), its “demands,” the critical necessary conditions (endogenously as well as exogenously; from a micro to a macro level) which are necessary for the posited “risk” to operate (begin, continue, become anchored and integrate, change as de facto realities change, cease, etc.) or not to and whether its underpinnings are theory-driven, empirically-based, individual and/or systemic stake holder-bound, based upon “principles of faith,” historical observation, precedents and traditions that accumulate over time, perceptual and judgmental constraints, “transient public opinion.” or what. This is necessary to clarify if the term is not to remain as yet another shibboleth in a field of many stereotypes. Editor's note.

2 The reader is referred to Hills's (1965) criteria for causation that were developed in order to help assist researchers and clinicians determine whether risk factors were causes of a particular disease or outcomes or merely associated. Editor's note.