Testing the Length of Time Theory of Recall Decay: Examining Substance Use Report Stability With 10 Years of National Longitudinal Survey of Youth Data

Abstract

Aim: This article examines whether the proportion of recanters increases (or decreases) as a function of time o test length of time theory. Sample: 2,221 US respondents in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth child data. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses were used. Results: Among recanters, 50% of cigarette and alcohol users recanted use by 4 years, and 50% of marijuana users recanted by 3 years. Predictors of recanting was being Black or Hispanic and younger age. The theory was not supported. Further research is needed to identify potential reasons why adolescents recant their use is such a short time span. The study's limitations are noted.

RÉSUMÉ

Test de la théorie du temps dans le cas de désaveux: Étude de la stabilité des rappels de consommation de drogues –Analyses de l'enquête nationale longitudinale de la jeunesse

Cet article examine dans quelle mesure la proportion de désaveux augmente (ou diminue) en fonction du temps écoulé entre les enquêtes, afin de tester la théorie du temps. Échantillon: 2,221 participants à l'enquête nationale longitudinale de la jeunesse aux États-Unis. Des analyses bi-variées et de régression logistique ont été conduites. Résultats: 50% des consommateurs de cigarettes et d'alcool désavouent leur consommation endéans quatre ans, et 50% des consommateurs de marijuana désavouent leur consommation endéans trois ans. La probabilité des désaveux augmente parmi les Noirs et Hispaniques ainsi que parmi les plus jeunes. Les résultats ne corroborent pas la théorie du temps. Davantage de recherche est nécessaire pour identifier les facteurs expliquant la tendance des adolescents à désavouer leur consommation de drogues endéans un court lapse de temps.

RESUMEN

Probar la teoría del plazo del tiempo y el deterioro de la memoria: Examinar la regularidad del reporte del abuso de sustancias utilizando diez años de información de la Encuesta Nacional Longitudinal de Datos de la Juventud (National Longitudinal Survey of Youth Data).

Este documento examina si la proporción de retractos aumenta (o disminuye) como una función del tiempo para probar la teoría del plazo del tiempo. Muestra: 2,221 estadounidenses encuestados en la Encuesta Nacional Longitudinal de Datos de la Juventud, en la cual se utilizaron análisis bi-variantes y logísticos de regresión. Resultados: dentro de los retractos, el 50% de los usuarios de cigarrillos y alcohol, retractaron su consumo unos cuatro años y el 50% de los usuarios de marihuana retractaron su consumo unos tres años. Los jóvenes de menor edad, de raza negra o hispana, se predictaron en la retractación. La teoría no fue sostenida. Es necesario realizar más investigaciones para identificar las posibles razones por las que los adolescentes se retractan acerca de su consumo, en un plazo de tiempo tan corto.

Keywords :

• adolescent
• self-report stability
• alcohol
• cigarette
• marijuana
• recanting
• measurement
• theory

THE AUTHORS

Audrey M. Shillington is Professor at the San Diego State University, School of Social Work and Associate Director for the Center on Alcohol and Other Drug Studies. She received her Ph.D. from the Washington University. She was a Post-Doctoral Fellow at the National Institute of Mental Health and received a Master's in Psychiatric Epidemiology from the School of Medicine at the Washington University. She has published over 50 peer-reviewed publications and been Principal Investigator and Coinvestigator on grants totaling over $6.5 million. Her research has focused on psychometrics and measurement of alcohol and drug use, as well as adolescent and young adult substance use prevention and interventions.

Dr. Mark B. Reed received his graduate training in Social Psychology from the University of Maryland, College Park. Dr. Reed has conducted research in the field of substance use prevention since 2000, and his current research interests include (1) genetic and environmental determinants of substance use/abuse and (2) the social and psychological risk/protective factors related to changes in adolescent/young adult substance use trajectories.

Dr. John D. Clapp is the Director of the Center for Alcohol and Drug Studies, Professor at the School of Social Work, Adjunct Professor for the Graduate School of Public Health, at the San Diego State University as well as the Director for the US Department of Educations, Higher Education Center. He received his Ph.D. from The Ohio State University in 1995, with a specialization in health and social science research methods. Dr. Clapp's research interests are in the epidemiology and prevention of alcohol and other drug (AOD) problems, with an emphasis on person and environment interactions.

Susan I. Woodruff, Ph.D., is a Behavioral Epidemiologist and Professor at the School of Social Work at the San Diego State University. She has over 25 years of experience in the area of health research, much of it with underserved, high risk, and understudied populations. Her primary area of interest over the past few years has been tobacco and drug use prevalence, risk factor assessment, and intervention. Dr. Woodruff has served as Principal Investigator, Coinvestigator, or Statistician on several large epidemiological and intervention studies focused on adolescents, including a randomized study testing an Internet virtual world chat room approach to smoking cessation for young smokers; an intervention study to reduce environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) in the home by providing smoking parents’ feedback about children's level of hair nicotine; a prospective study of cultural risk factors for smoking among Latino adolescents; and a national multilevel assessment study of tanning salon use among adolescents.