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Abstract
Background: While several studies have investigated the relationship between risk perception and substance use, surprisingly little is known about mutual influences between both variables over time. Objectives: The present study aimed to explore two different hypotheses separately for tobacco, alcohol and cannabis: influences from risk perception on behavior (motivational hypothesis) and influences from behavior on risk perception (risk reappraisal hypothesis). Methods: A prospective and longitudinal cross-lagged panel design was used with substance use and risk perception measured five times over the course of 10 years. Participants were 318 German youths aged 14–15 at the beginning of the study. Risk perception and substance use frequency were measured using self-reports. Results: Structural equation modeling indicated significant influences of risk perception on substance use behavior for all substances, which supports the motivational hypothesis. Changes in risk perception predict changes in future substance use of tobacco, alcohol and cannabis. Specifically for cannabis, influences of substance use on risk perception can also be shown, thus, supporting the risk reappraisal hypothesis. Conclusions: While there is support for the rationale behind adequate risk perception as a goal of preventive interventions, the possibility of risk reappraisal should not be neglected, especially regarding illicit substances.
THE AUTHORS
Dennis Grevenstein is a psychologist and works as a researcher at the University of Heidelberg, Institute of Medical Psychology. He has had three major topics in his research: predictors of substance use (such as risk perceptions), personality and salutogenesis, as well as implicit measures in the field of social psychology. He is currently working in a project on the measurement of the quality of social relationships.
Ede Nagy is a psychologist and works as a researcher at the University of Heidelberg, Institute of Medical Psychology. His recent research activities include the planning, implementation, and evaluation of the drug prevention program “REBOUND - Life-skill and risk education program for schools” and the study of health-related skills in young people when dealing with psychoactive substances (risk competence). He is also involved in the analysis of the effectiveness of a systemic-family-oriented intervention targeting employees of institutions for persons with intellectual disabilities and mental disorders. In addition, he is currently undergoing training in psychodynamic psychotherapy.
Henrik Jungaberle, Dr.sc.hum, is a health and drug researcher specializing on non-addictive forms of substance use, participative health education, and ethics of health and drug policy. At the University of Heidelberg, Institute of Medical Psychology, he has been prinicipal investigator of the RISA study (2002–2013) and the innovative risk competence program Rebound (2010–2014). RISA's focus was on long-term cultural and psychological factors of substance use. In Rebound he develops cooperative, media-based strategies for harm-reduction and benefit maximation. Dr. Jungaberle is experienced in using qualitative and multi-method strategies for creating typologies. He is chairman of the Human Development Non-Profit Organization FINDER.
GLOSSARY
Protection motivation approach: When people learn about risks, they are motivated to change their behavior or engage in preventive action to avoid negative outcomes.
Risk perception: a subjective judgment about the characteristics and severity of a risk.
Theory of cognitive dissonance: discomfort experienced by an individual who's beliefs, ideals, or behavior are inconsistent. When inconsistency (or dissonance) is experienced, individuals are motivated to attempt to reduce this dissonance by adjusting either their behavior, or their beliefs and attitudes.