A Diagnostic Tool with Important Implications for Treatment of Addiction: Identification of Factors Underlying Relapse and Remission Time Distributions

Abstract

The results of analysis of successive relapse and remission times of many opiate addicts were examined. It is discovered that motivation is the preeminent factor that governs the distribution of lengths of remission times (periods of abstinence), differences in types of motivation leading to an underlying mixture of three or fewer Weibull distributions. On the other hand, two distinct factors—namely wear-out (dysfunction resulting from exhaustion or tiring out brought on by the addict's enforced life-style) and precipitation of events that may not be beyond the control of the addict—govern the distribution of lengths of relapse times (periods of using opiates), leading, typically, to an underlying competing-risk distribution. Methods for using this information to aid in treatment and in research are described.