How Can Results of Longitudinal Studies Help Mathematicians Model the HIV Epidemic Among Intravenous Drug Abusers and the General Population?

Abstract

This paper describes an AIDS epidemic model that has been developed to explore the relationships among parameters that characterize that epidemic which include: (1) needle sharing and sexual contacts with individuals within and among distinct risk groups; (2) rates of progression from HIV infection to diagnosis of AIDS; (3) characteristics of viral transmission; and (4) survival rates of persons with AIDS. Based on cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control, risk-group specific contact rates are estimated that reconstruct AIDS incidence.

Key Words:

• HIV
• AIDS
• Theory
• Model
• Epidemiology
• Contact rates