Epidemiology of Substance use the Heroin/Cocaine Epidemic in Switzerland 1979-1997: A Mathematical Analysis of Law Enforcement Data

Abstract

The Swiss registry of charges concerning illegal trade and consumption of narcotics makes a distinction between first and subsequent charges as well as between several types of illegal drugs. It has been previously shown by using a mathematical model that changes in incidence of illegal drug use can be inferred from the time series of two indicators which are calculated from the numbers of first and subsequent charges. This method of data analysis is now refined in order to monitor the incidence of heroin/cocaine use. The conclusion is that 2,500 persons per year may have entered the population of habitual heroin/cocaine users in the early 1980s, and about 10,000 each year in 1991-93. After 1993, however, the incidence of heroin/cocaine use declined rapidly.

Key Words:

• Population estimates
• Use of heroin/cocaine
• Law enforcement data
• Compartment model
• Simulation