The role of cervical length measurement at 11–14 weeks for the prediction of preterm delivery

Abstract

Objective. To determine whether cervical length (CL) measurement at 11–14 weeks is predictive of preterm delivery (PTD).

Methods. This was a prospective study of a low-risk population of 1113 women, who underwent CL measurement at 11–14 weeks. Mean CL was calculated for deliveries at >37, <37 and <34 weeks. Cut-off limits of 27 mm and 30 mm were used to examine the predictive value of CL.

Results. Mean ± SD CL for the entire study population was 40.6 ± 5.5 mm. CL was analyzed for term and PTD (<37 weeks) and further analyzed for deliveries at 34–37 and <34 weeks. Mean CL was 38.9 ± 5.5 mm for PTD and 40.8 ± 5.5 mm for deliveries >37 weeks (p = 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed small predictive value of CL for PTD <37 weeks (sensitivity = 63.3% and specificity = 51.1%, area under the curve (AUC) = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.54–0.66) (p = 0.001) and did not show any predictive value for PTD <35 weeks (AUC = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.43–0.67, p = 0.355) or PTD <32 weeks (AUC = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.30–0.74, p = 0.851).

Conclusion. CL at 11–14 weeks does not appear to be predictive of PTD. Statistical analysis of CL did not show any predictive value for PTD <35 weeks, or <32 weeks and although it showed a predictive value for PTD at <37 weeks, the sensitivity was very low.

Keywords:

• Cervical length
• preterm
• first trimester

Declaration of interest: The authors report no conflicts of interest. The authors alone are responsible for the content and writing of the paper.