From Quad to Quint? Vietnam’s Strategic Potential

Abstract

The United States should enlarge its concept for countering Chinese expansionism to stress economic power in addition to military power. One bold move to this end would be to include Vietnam in a redefined ‘Quint’ alongside the current Quad comprising Australia, India, Japan and the United States. Instead of forging a US–Vietnam defence treaty and encouraging a Vietnamese military build-up, which could trigger a hostile Chinese reaction, the US would help Vietnam advance its own priorities of renewable development and improved worker productivity. For this, an American-led business–government initiative will be needed. As China’s economy sputters while its military investments grow, a Quint with both economic and military power could enjoy an advantage in peacetime and during crises.

Key words:

• Australia
• China
• containment
• foreign direct investment (FDI)
• India
• productivity
• Quad
• Quint
• renewable development
• South China Sea
• Taiwan
• United States
• Vietnam

Notes

1 For an alternative to such a vulnerable concentration of forces, see David C. Gompert and Martin Libicki, ‘Detect and Engage: A New American Way of War’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 5, October– November 2023, pp. 65–74.

2 Richard Wike et al., ‘The Tarnished American Brand’, Pew Research Center, 26 June 2017, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2017/06/26/tarnished-american-brand/.

3 See Sharon Seah and Indira Zahra Aridati, ‘Vietnamese Perceptions in a Changing Sino-US Relationship’, Fulcrum: Analysis on Southeast Asia, 15 September 2023, https://fulcrum.sg/vietnamese-perceptions-in-a-changing-sino-us-relationship/.

4 See Center for Strategic and International Studies, ‘How Much Trade Transits the South China Sea?’, ChinaPower, https://chinapower.csis.org/much-trade-transits-south-china-sea/.

5 According to a 2023 Gallup International survey of people in 54 countries, the Vietnamese, at 86%, were in fact the most optimistic. Gallup International, ‘Not Much of a Free World. But At Least Optimistic’, 16 May 2023, https://www.gallup-international.com/survey-results-and-news/survey-result/not-much-of-a-free-world-but-at-least-optimistic.

6 Office of the US Trade Representative, ‘Vietnam’, https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/southeast-asia-pacific/vietnam.

7 See, for example, Darrelle Ng, ‘China’s Slower Growth Expected as Economy Matures; Increase in Defence Spending Likely to Continue: Analysts’, Channel News Asia, 6 March 2023, https://cna.asia/3Zu1ZPF.

8 See Embassy of India in Hanoi, Vietnam, ‘Trade and Economic Relations’, https://www.indembassyhanoi.gov.in/page/economic-and-commercial/; Australian Government, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, ‘Vietnam Country Brief’, https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/vietnam/vietnam-country-brief; and ‘Vietnam’s Trade with Largest Partners in 2022’, Vietnam+, 14 February 2023, https://en.vietnamplus.vn/vietnams-trade-with-biggest-partners-in-2022/248239.vnp.

9 Observatory of Economic Complexity, ‘China’, https://oec.world/en/profile/country/chn.

10 See United Nations, ‘United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 3–14 June 1992’, https://www.un.org/en/conferences/environment/rio1992.

11 Also known as ‘sustainable development’ – a term that we think does not fully capture the new approach needed.

12 See ‘Việt Nam to Host Green Growth, Global Goals Partnership Summit in 2025’, Việt Nam News, 26 September 2023, https://vietnamnews.vn/environment/1594298/viet-nam-to-host-green-growth-global-goals-partnership-summit-in-2025.html.

13 See White House, ‘Joint Leaders’ Statement: Elevating United States–Vietnam Relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’, 11 September 2023, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/11/joint-leaders-statement-elevating-united-states-vietnam-relations-to-a-comprehensive-strategic-partnership/.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

James Adams

James Adams is former Vice President for Asia at the World Bank.

David C. Gompert

David C. Gompert is former US Acting Director of National Intelligence.

Thomas Knudson

Thomas Knudson is former Chairman of the US Business Council for Sustainable Development.